Abstract The economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that the economic indicators in July fell back from June, and the macro economy remained at a low level. The industry believes that the future steady growth policy needs to be overweight. Infrastructure investment unexpectedly fell. All economic data fell in July. among them...
The economic data released by the National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed that the economic indicators in July fell back from June, and the macro economy remained at a low level. The industry believes that the future steady growth policy needs to be overweight. Infrastructure investment unexpectedly fell
The economic data in July fell across the board. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society fell again to 11.2% in July, down 0.2 percentage points from January to June. Capital construction investment dropped significantly in July after a small rebound in June, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 18.2%. The growth rate dropped by 0.9 percentage points from January to June.
Specifically, in addition to a slight increase in the investment growth rate of the water conservancy management industry, other types of infrastructure investment have declined to varying degrees. Among them, the railway transportation industry has experienced the most significant decline in investment. The cumulative growth rate in January-July fell by 8 percentage points to 10.9. %.
Zhang Jun, head of macroeconomic research at Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities Research Department, believes that with the year-on-year growth rate of fixed assets investment in place improving for two consecutive months, the unexpected decline in infrastructure investment in July is more puzzling, which may be mainly and The government's ability to invest and finance is insufficient. During the year, the pressure on local government debt service has increased in the second half of the year. Although the local government debt swap of 3 trillion yuan and the issuance of local government bonds in the budget are underway, due to the large scale, the pace of advancement is not as good as expected. As a result, local governments are still weak in infrastructure investment. From the July money and credit data, it can be found that the bank's wait-and-see attitude is still strong, mainly because of the pressure on local government debt replacement on the one hand, and the higher risk preference in the economic down cycle on the other hand. In addition, monthly investment in infrastructure may also be affected by seasonal factors, resulting in insufficient operating rates (including high temperature weather in most parts of the country).
Zhang Jun believes that real estate investment and manufacturing investment have bright spots. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate investment and manufacturing investment continued to slow down. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate decreased from 4.6% and 9.7% in the previous month to 4.3% and 9.2% respectively. However, in the real estate development investment from January to July, residential investment increased by 3.0% year-on-year, and the growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points from January to June, which was the first increase since 2014, indicating the effective digestion of funds and the funds brought by the early sales recovery. The quick return has begun to push developers to start investment again. In view of the fact that residential investment accounts for more than two-thirds of the country's real estate development investment, its growth rate will play a role in the next step of national real estate development investment. Although the overall investment in manufacturing is still plagued by overcapacity, the economic transformation has led to high-tech industry investment, industrial technology transformation investment, and investment growth in consumer goods manufacturing industries to varying degrees.
Stable growth ideas will be more pragmatic
The industry believes that the poor economic data means that the steady growth policy needs to be overweight.
The macro report of Minsheng Securities believes that the contribution of the financial industry and the real estate industry to GDP is difficult to sustain. In the second half of the year, the economy will break the “7†risk, and the steady growth will be overweight, and the thinking will be more pragmatic. From the perspective of monetary policy, the easing of the central bank [microblogging] will be more "quality" rather than "quantity", mainly through lowering the standard (hedging exchange rate depreciation), targeting loosening (PSL, refinancing) and other means to reduce the long end. Interest rates, although they choose to relax the exchange rate to protect foreign demand, but will not let the interest rate rise to impact domestic demand. From the perspective of fiscal policy, it is mainly to solve the problem of infrastructure financing by accelerating the signing of PPP projects and the expansion of urbanization funds.
The CICC report believes that consumption growth may decline as economic growth is weak and real estate sales may gradually fall back. The depreciation of the renminbi may curb overseas tourism consumption, but there may not be much positive driving effect on domestic consumption.
Recently, the central bank reformed the RMB mid-price pricing mechanism. Although devaluation has a positive effect on the economy in theory, considering that export growth is related to global demand, the stimulating effect on goods exports may be limited. The depreciation of the exchange rate may help the deficit under the compression service (mainly tourism and transportation).
However, the Chinese economy is driven more by domestic demand than by external demand. In essence, the focus of monetary conditions should still fall on lowering domestic real interest rates. In the environment of severe negative PPI, the high real interest rate still inhibits the company's investment and production willingness. Therefore, the exchange rate depreciation does not mean that the relaxation of monetary policy at the interest rate level can be suspended.
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