The export window for ammonium phosphate has been open for over 20 days, and the order-taking situation has improved significantly. Manufacturers have maintained a rising production rate, supported by strong export demand. This has helped boost domestic prices, as the market is being driven by smooth export operations. Although a price adjustment has already occurred in ammonium, diammonium remains in an off-season period due to limited domestic procurement. However, manufacturers continue to push their quotations higher, though actual transactions remain modest.
Looking at current export volumes, the market outlook for diammonium appears promising. Internationally, diammonium prices are on the rise, which has increased confidence among producers and their order volumes. The international price of diammonium has climbed, with gains ranging from $5 to $25 per ton. Only Pakistan has seen a slight decline. For example, FOB prices in Tampa are now $450, up $5; Morocco ranges between $490 and $505, with the lower end rising by $25 and the upper end by $20. In the Baltic Sea region, prices are $455–$460, up $15 on both ends. In China, FOB prices range from $425 to $450, with the lower end up $10. Over the past two weeks, Chinese diammonium FOB prices have steadily increased, significantly boosting export activity.
Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s exports of diammonium to India are also showing an upward trend. This global price increase has put pressure on India’s procurement strategy, making its approach of "dragging" negotiations with Chinese manufacturers less sustainable.
Domestically, manufacturers have started to raise their prices. Last week, 64% of the mainstream factory prices for diammonium were between 2,400 and 2,450 yuan. However, sales remained low during the off-season. Some manufacturers adopted a low-end buyout strategy to encourage downstream buyers to purchase in advance, but the overall market outlook remains uncertain, and the impact has not been significant. Overall, diammonium prices have now begun to climb.
The export of mono-ammonium has strongly influenced the domestic ammonium market. As the international market continues to see price increases, export demand remains robust. Some ports have experienced short-term surges in monoammonium shipments, pushing up ex-factory prices to some extent. In terms of pricing, the mainstream factory price for 55% powdered monoammonium remains stable around 1,800 yuan. Meanwhile, 55% monoammonium, which is more heavily exported, has seen price increases, with the average factory price now around 1,900 yuan.
Raw material prices have remained steady, with phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia prices stabilizing. The raw material costs for monoammonium have shown stronger performance. Going forward, the market will largely depend on demand trends. Based on the current domestic and international sales trends, a small seasonal peak in ammonium demand is expected.
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