The export window for ammonium phosphate has been open for over 20 days, with a positive order-taking environment and rising production rates among manufacturers. This smooth export activity has driven domestic prices higher. Currently, ammonium prices have seen some adjustments, while diammonium remains in an off-season period due to limited domestic procurement. Manufacturers are pushing prices upward, but actual transactions remain low. Based on current export volumes, the market outlook for diammonium is expected to improve.
Internationally, diammonium prices are on the rise, boosting confidence among producers and increasing their order-taking momentum. The global price of diammonium has gone up by between $5 and $25 per ton, with only a slight decline observed in Pakistan. Diammonium FOB prices show significant increases: Tampa at $450 (+$5), Morocco at $490–$505 (up $25 at the lower end and $20 at the higher end), Baltic Sea at $455–$460 (up $15 at both ends), and China at $425–$450 (with the lower end up $10). Over the past two weeks, Chinese diammonium FOB prices have continued to climb, significantly impacting export performance. Additionally, Saudi Arabia’s exports of diammonium to India are also seeing price increases, which has put pressure on India's procurement strategy. India's attempt to delay negotiations and bargain with Chinese manufacturers is becoming less effective.
With the smooth export situation, domestic manufacturers have also started to raise their pricing. Last week, 64% of the mainstream factory prices for diammonium were between 2,400 and 2,450 yuan, although the volume remained low during the off-season. Some manufacturers have adopted a low-end buyout strategy to encourage downstream buyers to purchase in advance, but the market outlook remains unclear, and the impact of this approach has not yet been significant. Overall, diammonium prices have now begun to rise.
The export of monoammonium has clearly boosted the domestic ammonium market. As the international ammonium market continues to rise, export demand remains strong, and some ports have experienced short-term surges in monoammonium shipments, leading to a rise in ex-factory prices. In terms of pricing, the mainstream factory price for 55% powdered monoammonium remains stable around 1,800 yuan. However, as more 55% monoammonium is exported, prices have increased slightly, with the mainstream factory price now around 1,900 yuan.
Raw material prices have remained stable, with phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia holding steady. The price trend for monoammonium raw materials has been relatively strong. Moving forward, market demand will play a key role. Based on the current trends in domestic and international sales, a small ammonium season is expected to take place.
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