The global economy will enter the deflation cycle in 2012 due to the deleveraging of the virtual economy and the destocking of the real economy. Liquidity traps overlay the global economy into a low-speed growth of at least five years and even a mild recession cycle, the sudden decline in demand for non-ferrous metals, the price of its price may be far below the market expectations.
Global economic recovery risks rise
While the European economic recession is inevitable, the US economic recovery is not strong enough. In the long run, there will be extremely low moderate growth in the next five years, and the risk of another recession is also rising. At the same time, China continued its economic restructuring in 2012, and the peak of growth has passed. Judging from the short cycle of the troika, in addition to facing the challenges of the medium and long-term, in 2012, it will face two major economic stall risks, namely, the decline in exports under the impact of overseas uncertainty and the decline in investment in the real estate market.
Weakening monetary policy effectiveness
Globally, in the fourth quarter, most economies have turned to monetary easing, but the effect is minimal. Compared with the wide-ranging release of liquidity in various economies around the world in 2009, current policies have failed and are in economics. Said the liquidity trap. In terms of fiscal policy, Europe and the United States are committed to reducing fiscal deficits and debts. The possibility of large-scale fiscal stimulus is negligible, and it is almost impossible for emerging economies such as China to launch large-scale fiscal stimulus.
The establishment of the US dollar stage
If the transaction cost is not considered, the participant holds a certain currency or an asset associated with the currency, and the most concerned is the rate of return after the risk reduction. Currently, money market participants are increasingly convinced that the risk-reduction rate of holding the US dollar will be higher than other currencies. Due to the European debt crisis and the economic slowdown in emerging economies, especially China’s real estate regulation and economic growth have led to the outflow of hot money, while the currency rotation of emerging economies has depreciated, capital has returned to the United States, which has lowered the yield of US Treasury bonds and boosted the US dollar against other non-US The appreciation of the currency, while the appreciation of the dollar is bearish for the dollar-denominated price of non-ferrous metals.
Specific varieties are slightly differentiated
copper. Supply enters a new period of rapid growth, and supply is in short supply, and the growth rate of China's power grid construction slows down in 2012. The air-conditioning and automobile industries have experienced destocking and adjustment. Real estate continues to be sluggish and housing is not obvious to home appliances. Demand has continued to slow down since the turning point in 2011. Lun copper may be in the range of 5,600-6,000 US dollars, and Shanghai copper will return to the range of 45,000 yuan/ton and 10%.
aluminum. The westward production capacity has led to a new round of capacity release and the abundant power resources in the west, which has weakened the cost support. The European aluminum inventories have a record, while the real estate regulation continues, the demand is sluggish, and aluminum may run under the cost line for a long time. Lun aluminum is estimated to be 1800-2000. After the low range of the US dollar, Shanghai Aluminum operated at 10% above and below the 15500.
lead. The environmental rectification in 2011 provided convenience for the industry concentration, while China encouraged the introduction of environmental protection policies such as electric vehicles, which will stimulate the recovery of lead-acid batteries in 2012. Wind and solar energy development also stimulated the application of batteries. It is expected that the lead price will be relatively resistant in 2012, and the lead will run at 10% above and below 2,000 US dollars, while the Shanghai lead will be in the upper and lower range of 10% of 16,000.
Zinc. In 2012, the production capacity was released, superimposed on the rising inventory in 2011, making the zinc fundamentals second only to aluminum. In 2012, the railway infrastructure was lower than the estimated annual output of 600 billion yuan in the 12th Five-Year Plan. The low-speed growth of China's auto industry has led to no galvanization for transportation. The pressure of oversupply has increased and the destocking time has been extended again. It is expected that zinc will operate in the 10% range of around $1,700, while Shanghai zinc will remain below the cost of 15,000 for a long time.
Concerned about surprises
Tags: Non-ferrous metals prices Leverage 2012 Economies Yield
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