The HSBC China September Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) preview value released on the 20th was 47.8, slightly higher than the August PMI final value of 47.6, but still below the 50 critical line. Among them, the output and new business of HSBC PMI index accelerated in September. The new order index rose to 54.4 from 52.7 in the previous month. The output increased and the growth rate was moderate. The new order index rose to 54.4 from 52.7 in the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, although the trend is similar, HSBC PMI, which mainly reflects the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises, has been weaker in data performance than the official PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises. The actual order recovery of enterprises will be subject to the official PMI announcement on the 1st of next month. Can be mutually verified. According to Qu Hongbin, chief economist at HSBC China, the index means that China's manufacturing growth rate is still slowing, but the slowdown has stabilized. Due to the weak new orders, the destocking process was longer than previously expected, the manufacturing industry remained sluggish, and the labor market was further under pressure, prompting the decision-making layer to frequently increase the easing policy in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs economist Song Yu observed positive changes in orders and production from HSBC PMI and believed that their movements were in line with the rise of Goldman Sachs Global Leading Index (GLI), but Song Yu also emphasized new orders and new export orders. The rebound of these two indices is small. In view of the fact that China's export growth has accelerated after the first two quantitative easing policies in the United States, the export growth in the rest of the year may still rebound after the introduction of the latest quantitative easing policy. In addition, the purchase price and ex-factory price index in HSBC PMI showed the first significant increase since the first quarter of 2012, which may largely reflect the expectation of the impact of policy relaxation, but it is difficult to see the short-term actual demand. Signs of rising. In addition to foreign demand, it is likely to bring external demand stimulus. Qu Hongbin analyzed that in view of the annual deficit target of 800 billion, combined with the fiscal surplus of nearly one trillion in the first eight months of this year, there will be nearly two trillion expansion in the last four months. Spending space. It is expected that the policy easing will drive the GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter to rise to around 8%, so that a soft landing is expected. However, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, told reporters that financial funds are basically clearly used in the budget, and Premier Wen Jiabao also stressed at the Davos forum that "all measures taken by China this year have not exceeded The hard constraints of the budget are all carried out within the budget, which means that unless the annual budget is revised, it is difficult for the government to make new stimulus budgets with fiscal balances and calendar balances. Moreover, the current surplus of the financial sector is generally It will be paid in a centralized manner at the end of the year according to the budget arrangement. Even if the current book surplus is spent in the short-term, it may bring a certain driving effect to the economy, but it does not mean that the government will have excessive expenditure outside the budget.
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