1 Introduction
The ancients said: “There are accidents in the sky.†Building fire engineering is an open system. In the course of its implementation, it will inevitably be affected by a variety of uncertainties, especially some large-scale projects. Large, long construction period, complex technical conditions, coupled with people's limitations in the planning and design, so that in the process of construction and operation will inevitably encounter a variety of adverse factors, and then trigger the entire fire engineering progress, quality, The risk that security and cost control objectives cannot be achieved will cause huge losses to the people of the country. Therefore, the identification, analysis and evaluation of risks in the construction of fire protection, and how to deal with and monitor these risks are problems that we must face and value. These are the contents of the research on the risk management of construction fire engineering.
To carry out research on risk management and fire engineering methods for building fire protection projects is to implement the principle of “prevention-oriented, prevention-disinfection combined†in China's fire protection policy. Understanding the knowledge of fire risk management allows us to control the investment, progress and quality of building fire engineering through scientific methods. The risk management of building fire engineering is a part of the fire safety process. It runs through the entire process of building fire engineering. Applying the fire risk management theory helps to balance the specific requirements of different phases of fire construction and operation in construction projects. Therefore, studying the risk management of building fire engineering is of great significance to fire safety.
2. Construction Fire Engineering Risk
2.1 Classification of Risks and Risks
The risk of building fire engineering is the possibility that this goal cannot be achieved under the conditions specified in the engineering objectives. It contains two elements: (a) the potential for the occurrence of an event, which we define as the project risk rate (RiskProbability); and (b) the consequences of negative adverse events.
2.2 The characteristics of building fire engineering risk
(1) The objectivity of building fire engineering risk. The risk of building fire engineering is always objective. Whether it is natural disasters, wars, or social life conflicts, conflicts, or carelessness, it is not based on human will. However, as people recognize the improvement of the world level, people's understanding of the regularity of risk is constantly improving, which creates the conditions for the scientific management of the risk of building fire engineering. (2) Uncertainty in the risk of construction fire engineering. Whether or not a risk event occurs, when it occurs, and what consequences it will cause are uncertain. However, people can make a certain degree of analysis and prediction based on historical data and experience. (3) The variability of risk in building fire engineering. When the risk factor changes, the possibility of risk and the consequences of the risk change. (4) The stage of construction fire engineering risk. It includes potential phases, occurrence phases, and consequences phases.
3. Risk identification of building fire engineering
Fire engineering risk identification is the first and important step of risk management. Risk identification is to determine what risks exist in the implementation of engineering projects, what impact these risks may have on the project, and archive these risks and their characteristics.
3.1 Risk Identification Process and Method
The risk identification method for building fire engineering is often empirical data analysis, risk investigation, expert consultation and experimental demonstration. In the analysis of empirical data, attention should be paid to the collection of similar building data, including file records, project summary, project quality, engineering acceptance data, and safety accident handling documents in the past construction process, to find relevant reference data. In the risk investigation, an initial risk list for building fire engineering is established through risk decomposition. After the initial risk list is established, it is still necessary to further identify the risks according to the characteristics of the construction project itself, and make necessary amendments and supplements in practice. Expert consultations can generally convene meetings of relevant experts to put forward their own opinions on the fire protection programs for special buildings. Questionnaire surveys can also be used to express their views on an independent basis. Then, the opinions issued by experts from the risk managers are summarized, classified, and analyzed.
3.2 Take a Large Home Shopping Mall in Wenzhou as an Example
The home shopping mall has 7 floors above ground, 39.9 meters high, about 10,700 square meters of floor space, and about 3,300 square meters of underground building area. First of all, as far as possible to list the entire building fire engineering risk list: (1) the problems existing in the construction unit. Some construction units have obtained higher construction profits by reducing fire engineering investment and using substandard fire protection products. Do not attach importance to the quality of fire engineering, for the sake of economic interests, and the construction unit to reach an agreement of interest; some construction units in order to shorten the construction period, in violation of the relevant provisions of the "Fire Protection Law", do not apply for the review of fire design drawings before the start of the project, while design, edge Construction and side audits have caused buildings to have congenital fire hazards; some construction companies have made false biddings for fire protection projects according to the intentions of the leaders, or choose companies with low quotations for construction, and these companies only provide returns for profits. Can reduce the construction quality of fire engineering. (2) Problems with the design organization. Due to the influence of the market economy environment and the unreasonable requirements for the construction unit, we cannot adhere to the principle, do not design from the objective reality of the construction project itself, and deceive the drawing examination department together with the construction unit, resulting in many concealed design drawings. The problem has caused fire hazards that cannot be rectified for the building, and a few design units have just been established. The relevant design professional and technical personnel are affiliated with other units, and they do not have the design capability to produce a map, resulting in the design of building fire fighting facilities. Supporting; for some construction projects, construction time is tight, the design unit to meet the requirements of the construction unit, simplify the design process, the professional designers can not fully coordinate and communicate with each other, resulting in lack of plans, drawings and design drawings of the architectural engineering design drawings can not meet Firefighting requirements are common. (3) Problems existing in the fire engineering construction unit. In order to obtain higher profits, some construction companies have violated laws and disciplines, and have shown that they have been guilty of cutting corners and cutting materials, lowering standards, relocating Party A’s illegal operations, and violating regulations, resulting in poor installation of the building’s fire protection system and congenitally deficient. Furthermore, due to the interests of some construction units, such as the qualifications of affiliation, procurement only depends on factors such as low prices and quality, leading to a significant decline in the reliability of building fire engineering. At the same time, supervision is not in place, testing companies give money and other aspects are also the inherent risk of building fire engineering.
Reflected in the project, the specific manifestations are: (1) The design of the fire protection system is irrational: For example, the spray on the seventh floor of the mall is set to be a side spray, and the walkway cannot be completely protected; the design of the fire rescue window is irrational. The number is insufficient, and the opening position is not a public safety area. (2) Unreasonable installation of fire-fighting equipment: For example, fire-retardant curtains are separated by shops and are not able to start and stop normally; spray pipes and sprinkler heads are not installed according to design drawings.
4. Risk assessment of building fire engineering
Building fire engineering risk assessment is the analysis of the probability of risk events, the resulting losses and the effects of their effects, as well as the joint actions and impacts of various risk events, in order to further develop risk management plans and identify risk responses. Measures and risk monitoring provide the basis. The risk assessment of building fire engineering is divided into risk assessment and risk assessment.
4.1 Risk Assessment of Building Fire Engineering
The risk assessment of a building fire engineering project analyzes the likelihood of a risk event and the consequences of a risk event. It provides the basis for analyzing the entire engineering risk or a certain type of risk.
4.1.1 Risk Assessment Method
In building fire engineering risk assessment, risk factors and risk events are usually described by establishing a model, and the risk is estimated by calculating the model. Many countries in this area have achieved some results, and have been widely used in performance design: the United States' Building Fire Safety Evaluation Method (BFSEM: TheBuildingFireSafetyEvaluationMethod); Australia's Risk Assessment Model (RAM: RiskAssessmentModeling); Canada's FIRECAM method.
4.1.2 Estimated Probability of Risk Events
The analysis of the probability or probability distribution of risk events is the basis for risk assessment of building fire engineering. The probability distribution of risk events should be determined by historical data and data, that is, the so-called objective probability; when there is not enough historical data and data to determine the probability distribution of risk events, the theoretical probability distribution or subjective probability can be used for risk assessment. When the probability distribution is obtained, the probability of occurrence of the risk event can be calculated according to the risk calculation model.
4.1.3 Risk Loss Estimate
Estimates of the risk of construction fire engineering losses include investment risk, schedule risk, quality risk, and safety risk. The ultimate risk can be summarized as economic losses.
4.1.3.1 Estimation of maximum one-time loss
The indicator of one-time maximum loss of a risk event is very important, because if a large amount of loss falls on a building fire protection project at one time, the project is likely to be terminated due to lack of liquidity; but the same amount of loss, if more For a long period of time, it can be managed to make up for it through financial adjustments.
4.1.3.2 Estimated Loss of the Project as a Whole
The overall loss here means that when a one-time loss is caused, it usually affects the later stage and results in an overall loss. This type of loss is usually not taken into account in the loss estimate, thus making the estimate of the loss inaccurate.
4.2 Risk Assessment of Building Fire Engineering
The risk evaluation of building fire engineering is based on the risk assessment to further analyze the joint effects of various risk events, the comprehensive consequences of the loss, and whether the project subject can accept these risks. Through risk assessment, it is possible to determine the order of risk, determine the internal links between risk events, and grasp the interrelationships between risks. It is also possible to further understand the estimated probability of occurrence of risks and the resulting losses, and to reduce the risk estimates. Certainty to be able to identify risk response measures.
4.2.1 Risk Assessment Criteria
The risk assessment standard is that the project owner determines the acceptable risk rate for different risks. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical-BASF Co., Ltd. has applied the risk assessment standards for the frequency and possible risks of leakage of its ethylene horizontal tank STT1061 tank and its accessories. Although this is an overall risk assessment standard for petrochemical projects, it has The strong representation can play a strong reference role in the formulation of risk assessment standards for building fire engineering.
The use of ALARP triangles to represent the proposed IRPA standard is a result of Yangba's comparison and analysis of numerous foreign standards, as well as its own company's situation. For different types of building fire engineering, the probability and the consequences of various risks are different. The risk rate that the subject can bear varies. Therefore, the risk assessment standards used for different types of building fire engineering are different.
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5. Risk Response and Risk Management of Building Fire Engineering
Through the identification, estimation and evaluation of building fire engineering, risk managers should have a certain degree of certainty about the various risks and potential losses. On this basis, risk managers will need to respond to risks: First, they must formulate a practical and feasible risk response plan; secondly, choose among many countermeasures to avoid, transfer, mitigate, accept, and use risks. An effective strategy to try to turn risks into opportunities or to minimize the negative effects of risks.
5.1 Risk Response Plan and Strategy
Building a fire protection project risk response plan is a process of formulating a risk strategy (or plan) and a countermeasure. The purpose is to increase the chances of achieving the project goals and reduce the threats to the project. The commonly used risk response strategies and measures for building fire engineering include risk aversion, risk transfer, risk mitigation, risk retention, and risk utilization, as well as a combination of these strategies. The determination of risk management strategies and measures for building fire engineering needs to be considered in terms of both effectiveness and cost.
5.2 Ways to Avoid Risks
There are two ways to avoid risks: (1) Avoid the risk of risk events. For example, a building uses a special large space in the design of the project, and firefighting design requires the use of special technical measures. Although this firefighting technology program seems feasible, it has not been approved by the firefighting department. After expert consultation and experimental demonstration, it has found that its firefighting measures have considerable uncertainty in terms of investment and progress, that is, the risks are relatively high. Big. In the preliminary design, the owner decided not to adopt this fire protection plan and improve the architectural design of the building. This avoids the risk of risk events. (2) Avoid possible loss after a risk event occurs. For example, the number of fire hydrants, fire extinguishers, emergency lights, and fire doors installed in a building, the addition of smoke prevention systems, the widening of evacuation passages, and the installation of different fire extinguishing systems depending on the nature of use of the building, etc. The possibility, but can effectively reduce the loss caused by the fire after the fire occurred, that is, to avoid losses caused by risk events.
5.2.1 Risk Aversion Planning System
In building fire engineering, the risk aversion planning system can be composed of three parts: prevention plan, disaster plan and emergency plan. The purpose of the prevention plan is to avoid risks in a targeted manner. It can be implemented through organizational measures and management measures. The disaster plan is a set of pre-programmed and definite working procedures and specific measures to deal with all serious and vicious emergencies with ease, timely and properly, and ultimately reduce casualties and economic losses. The contingency plan is a treatment plan after the risk loss is basically determined. The purpose of the contingency plan is to speed up the process of resuming the interruption and control the extent of the impact to a minimum.
5.2.2 Limitations of risk aversion
Risk aversion also has certain limitations: (1) Under certain conditions, risk aversion will lose some opportunities or hinder innovation. (2) Risk aversion is greatly restricted by information. When risk identification and risk estimation have not been fully grasped, risk aversion strategies will be greatly affected. (3) Strategies to adopt risk aversion are sometimes unrealistic and avoid risks. At the same time also lost some of the possibility of gaining from risk.
5.3 Risk Transfer
Risk transfer is the transfer of the results of a risk, along with the rights and responsibilities for risk response, to the other party, and it is up to the parties to take risks. For example, in the fire engineering project decision-making risk should be borne by the owner, the design risk should be borne by the designer, construction and installation technology risk should be borne by the contractor, and the operational risk should be borne by the property management.
Risk transfer can be divided into non-insurance transfer and insurance transfer.
5.3.1 Non-insurance transfer
Non-insurance risk transfer is the transfer of risk through contract conditions and contract language. For example, on the basis of satisfying the mandatory design provisions and standards and standards, the initial fire protection investment can be appropriately reduced by strengthening the fire management measures put into operation.
5.3.2 Insurance Transfer
As a way of risk transfer, insurance is an important strategy and measure to deal with the risk of fire protection engineering. Building fire engineering has a large investment, a long construction period, and a large number of potential risk factors. The owners and contractors often use insurance methods to pay a small amount of insurance fees in exchange for compensation for losses.
5.4 Risk retention
Risk self-retention, also known as risk acceptance, is a kind of risk response strategy that involves the project's own risks. Risk retention is used for the disposal of residual risks. In the face of numerous risks, there are always risks and losses that are difficult to grasp, and the main body of the project undertakes or retains them.
5.5 Risk Utilization
Risk utilization is a higher level of risk response for construction fire engineering projects. It focuses on the risks of some speculative risks. By grasping and controlling risks, it can turn adverse development into opportunities for development. For example, the bid price for a building fire engineering project is generally a major factor, but this is not the only criterion.
5.6 Construction Fire Engineering Risk Management Decision
The decision-making of risk management in fire engineering of a building is that the risk manager chooses a satisfactory plan through analysis, evaluation and judgment from a number of possible implementation plans on the basis of possessing certain information.
6. Comprehensive evaluation
Each step of the risk management of a building fire engineering project is very important. The former step is the premise and basis of the latter. However, according to different specific circumstances, the priorities must be analyzed. In general, for the development of more mature building fire engineering, such as the above-mentioned Yamba Petrochemical case, the choice of risk response method is more important; and for the development of not mature building fire engineering and its branch systems, such as performance design Risk assessment is particularly important.
6.1 Risk Assessment Method Selection
The risk estimation method mainly depends on the established model. The selection of the model should be based on the characteristics of the building fire engineering project to be estimated. At present, there are few risk assessment models in China. Most of them adopt the models developed by foreign authoritative organizations, and the selection of models is even more important. It is a blank space.
The selection of risk assessment methods should be based on the project entity's own situation and the characteristics of risk, and then choose different risk assessment standards for risk assessment. If the project's main body of funds and technical strength is relatively strong, you can choose a more stringent evaluation criteria; You can choose a more relaxed evaluation criteria. In this respect, our country mainly adopts some foreign shaped systems, and especially some mature industries can learn from their own circumstances. However, those industries that are not mature enough lack the basis for reference. They need relevant experts, especially the industry's own building fire engineering experts to study and formulate standards.
6.2 Risk Coping Style Selection
The choice of risk response method is closely linked with risk assessment. The result of risk assessment directly determines the choice of risk response method. Usually the most basic risk response method is risk aversion, because risk aversion eliminates risk from the source and eliminates risk effects in the most thorough way. However, specific analysis is also required for different situations. For example, risks with a high probability of occurrence of risk are almost only taken with risk aversion. Risks with large risk losses should be combined with risk transfer, risk transfer, and risk mitigation, especially when the loss is greater. The risk of insurance, the risk of insurance transfer is also very important; and the risk of a single event is less likely, but the project is more complex, more risk factors are latent, the risk transfer method is more reasonable; residual risk , managers must take risks to stay.
At present, the development of related technologies in China's building fire engineering is still in its infancy. Fire safety engineering, risk assessment system, fire economics, insurance industry and related laws and regulations are all imperfect factors that have seriously affected risk managers. Dealing with the relationship between risk assessment and risk response, managers can not find the key point in the process of risk management, wasting a lot of funds and energy of the engineering body, causing unnecessary losses, and ultimately constraining the development of risk management of construction fire engineering.
7. Conclusion
The risk management of building fire engineering is an important part of fire protection. It plays a pivotal role in the entire building fire engineering. Through the research on the risk management of building fire engineering, it can effectively avoid or reduce the loss of building fire engineering, and it plays a powerful role in promoting the performance design of fire protection, and provides technical support for comprehensive fire analysis theory. This article has only given a preliminary explanation of the process of construction fire engineering management. Domestic research in this area has just started, but with the gradual improvement of domestic fire protection, foreign companies and technology intervention, I believe that the construction of fire engineering risk management will be In the near future, there will be considerable development.
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Abstract : This article starts from the perspective of the problems faced by the construction fire engineering and combines with the current development status of building risk management in China. Through the analysis of risk identification, risk assessment and risk response, combined with individual cases, the concept of building fire engineering risk management is described. The system proposes measures for assessing and responding to the risks of building fire engineering, and aims to promote the development of the risk management of building fire engineering in China.
Keywords: risk building fire engineering risk assessment risk management
1 Introduction
The ancients said: “There are accidents in the sky.†Building fire engineering is an open system. In the course of its implementation, it will inevitably be affected by a variety of uncertainties, especially some large-scale projects. Large, long construction period, complex technical conditions, coupled with people's limitations in the planning and design, so that in the process of construction and operation will inevitably encounter a variety of adverse factors, and then trigger the entire fire engineering progress, quality, The risk that security and cost control objectives cannot be achieved will cause huge losses to the people of the country. Therefore, the identification, analysis and evaluation of risks in the construction of fire protection, and how to deal with and monitor these risks are problems that we must face and value. These are the contents of the research on the risk management of construction fire engineering.
To carry out research on risk management and fire engineering methods for building fire protection projects is to implement the principle of “prevention-oriented, prevention-disinfection combined†in China's fire protection policy. Understanding the knowledge of fire risk management allows us to control the investment, progress and quality of building fire engineering through scientific methods. The risk management of building fire engineering is a part of the fire safety process. It runs through the entire process of building fire engineering. Applying the fire risk management theory helps to balance the specific requirements of different phases of fire construction and operation in construction projects. Therefore, studying the risk management of building fire engineering is of great significance to fire safety.
2. Construction Fire Engineering Risk
2.1 Classification of Risks and Risks
The risk of building fire engineering is the possibility that this goal cannot be achieved under the conditions specified in the engineering objectives. It contains two elements: (a) the potential for the occurrence of an event, which we define as the project risk rate (RiskProbability); and (b) the consequences of negative adverse events.
2.2 The characteristics of building fire engineering risk
(1) The objectivity of building fire engineering risk. The risk of building fire engineering is always objective. Whether it is natural disasters, wars, or social life conflicts, conflicts, or carelessness, it is not based on human will. However, as people recognize the improvement of the world level, people's understanding of the regularity of risk is constantly improving, which creates the conditions for the scientific management of the risk of building fire engineering. (2) Uncertainty in the risk of construction fire engineering. Whether or not a risk event occurs, when it occurs, and what consequences it will cause are uncertain. However, people can make a certain degree of analysis and prediction based on historical data and experience. (3) The variability of risk in building fire engineering. When the risk factor changes, the possibility of risk and the consequences of the risk change. (4) The stage of construction fire engineering risk. It includes potential phases, occurrence phases, and consequences phases.
3. Risk identification of building fire engineering
Fire engineering risk identification is the first and important step of risk management. Risk identification is to determine what risks exist in the implementation of engineering projects, what impact these risks may have on the project, and archive these risks and their characteristics.
3.1 Risk Identification Process and Method
The risk identification method for building fire engineering is often empirical data analysis, risk investigation, expert consultation and experimental demonstration. In the analysis of empirical data, attention should be paid to the collection of similar building data, including file records, project summary, project quality, engineering acceptance data, and safety accident handling documents in the past construction process, to find relevant reference data. In the risk investigation, an initial risk list for building fire engineering is established through risk decomposition. After the initial risk list is established, it is still necessary to further identify the risks according to the characteristics of the construction project itself, and make necessary amendments and supplements in practice. Expert consultations can generally convene meetings of relevant experts to put forward their own opinions on the fire protection programs for special buildings. Questionnaire surveys can also be used to express their views on an independent basis. Then, the opinions issued by experts from the risk managers are summarized, classified, and analyzed.
3.2 Take a Large Home Shopping Mall in Wenzhou as an Example
The home shopping mall has 7 floors above ground, 39.9 meters high, about 10,700 square meters of floor space, and about 3,300 square meters of underground building area. First of all, as far as possible to list the entire building fire engineering risk list: (1) the problems existing in the construction unit. Some construction units have obtained higher construction profits by reducing fire engineering investment and using substandard fire protection products. Do not attach importance to the quality of fire engineering, for the sake of economic interests, and the construction unit to reach an agreement of interest; some construction units in order to shorten the construction period, in violation of the relevant provisions of the "Fire Protection Law", do not apply for the review of fire design drawings before the start of the project, while design, edge Construction and side audits have caused buildings to have congenital fire hazards; some construction companies have made false biddings for fire protection projects according to the intentions of the leaders, or choose companies with low quotations for construction, and these companies only provide returns for profits. Can reduce the construction quality of fire engineering. (2) Problems with the design organization. Due to the influence of the market economy environment and the unreasonable requirements for the construction unit, we cannot adhere to the principle, do not design from the objective reality of the construction project itself, and deceive the drawing examination department together with the construction unit, resulting in many concealed design drawings. The problem has caused fire hazards that cannot be rectified for the building, and a few design units have just been established. The relevant design professional and technical personnel are affiliated with other units, and they do not have the design capability to produce a map, resulting in the design of building fire fighting facilities. Supporting; for some construction projects, construction time is tight, the design unit to meet the requirements of the construction unit, simplify the design process, the professional designers can not fully coordinate and communicate with each other, resulting in lack of plans, drawings and design drawings of the architectural engineering design drawings can not meet Firefighting requirements are common. (3) Problems existing in the fire engineering construction unit. In order to obtain higher profits, some construction companies have violated laws and disciplines, and have shown that they have been guilty of cutting corners and cutting materials, lowering standards, relocating Party A’s illegal operations, and violating regulations, resulting in poor installation of the building’s fire protection system and congenitally deficient. Furthermore, due to the interests of some construction units, such as the qualifications of affiliation, procurement only depends on factors such as low prices and quality, leading to a significant decline in the reliability of building fire engineering. At the same time, supervision is not in place, testing companies give money and other aspects are also the inherent risk of building fire engineering.
Reflected in the project, the specific manifestations are: (1) The design of the fire protection system is irrational: For example, the spray on the seventh floor of the mall is set to be a side spray, and the walkway cannot be completely protected; the design of the fire rescue window is irrational. The number is insufficient, and the opening position is not a public safety area. (2) Unreasonable installation of fire-fighting equipment: For example, fire-retardant curtains are separated by shops and are not able to start and stop normally; spray pipes and sprinkler heads are not installed according to design drawings.
4. Risk assessment of building fire engineering
Building fire engineering risk assessment is the analysis of the probability of risk events, the resulting losses and the effects of their effects, as well as the joint actions and impacts of various risk events, in order to further develop risk management plans and identify risk responses. Measures and risk monitoring provide the basis. The risk assessment of building fire engineering is divided into risk assessment and risk assessment.
4.1 Risk Assessment of Building Fire Engineering
The risk assessment of a building fire engineering project analyzes the likelihood of a risk event and the consequences of a risk event. It provides the basis for analyzing the entire engineering risk or a certain type of risk.
4.1.1 Risk Assessment Method
In building fire engineering risk assessment, risk factors and risk events are usually described by establishing a model, and the risk is estimated by calculating the model. Many countries in this area have achieved some results, and have been widely used in performance design: the United States' Building Fire Safety Evaluation Method (BFSEM: TheBuildingFireSafetyEvaluationMethod); Australia's Risk Assessment Model (RAM: RiskAssessmentModeling); Canada's FIRECAM method.
4.1.2 Estimated Probability of Risk Events
The analysis of the probability or probability distribution of risk events is the basis for risk assessment of building fire engineering. The probability distribution of risk events should be determined by historical data and data, that is, the so-called objective probability; when there is not enough historical data and data to determine the probability distribution of risk events, the theoretical probability distribution or subjective probability can be used for risk assessment. When the probability distribution is obtained, the probability of occurrence of the risk event can be calculated according to the risk calculation model.
4.1.3 Risk Loss Estimate
Estimates of the risk of construction fire engineering losses include investment risk, schedule risk, quality risk, and safety risk. The ultimate risk can be summarized as economic losses.
4.1.3.1 Estimation of maximum one-time loss
The indicator of one-time maximum loss of a risk event is very important, because if a large amount of loss falls on a building fire protection project at one time, the project is likely to be terminated due to lack of liquidity; but the same amount of loss, if more For a long period of time, it can be managed to make up for it through financial adjustments.
4.1.3.2 Estimated Loss of the Project as a Whole
The overall loss here means that when a one-time loss is caused, it usually affects the later stage and results in an overall loss. This type of loss is usually not taken into account in the loss estimate, thus making the estimate of the loss inaccurate.
4.2 Risk Assessment of Building Fire Engineering
The risk evaluation of building fire engineering is based on the risk assessment to further analyze the joint effects of various risk events, the comprehensive consequences of the loss, and whether the project subject can accept these risks. Through risk assessment, it is possible to determine the order of risk, determine the internal links between risk events, and grasp the interrelationships between risks. It is also possible to further understand the estimated probability of occurrence of risks and the resulting losses, and to reduce the risk estimates. Certainty to be able to identify risk response measures.
4.2.1 Risk Assessment Criteria
The risk assessment standard is that the project owner determines the acceptable risk rate for different risks. For example, Yangzi Petrochemical-BASF Co., Ltd. has applied the risk assessment standards for the frequency and possible risks of leakage of its ethylene horizontal tank STT1061 tank and its accessories. Although this is an overall risk assessment standard for petrochemical projects, it has The strong representation can play a strong reference role in the formulation of risk assessment standards for building fire engineering.
The use of ALARP triangles to represent the proposed IRPA standard is a result of Yangba's comparison and analysis of numerous foreign standards, as well as its own company's situation. For different types of building fire engineering, the probability and the consequences of various risks are different. The risk rate that the subject can bear varies. Therefore, the risk assessment standards used for different types of building fire engineering are different.
5. Risk Response and Risk Management of Building Fire Engineering
Through the identification, estimation and evaluation of building fire engineering, risk managers should have a certain degree of certainty about the various risks and potential losses. On this basis, risk managers will need to respond to risks: First, they must formulate a practical and feasible risk response plan; secondly, choose among many countermeasures to avoid, transfer, mitigate, accept, and use risks. An effective strategy to try to turn risks into opportunities or to minimize the negative effects of risks.
5.1 Risk Response Plan and Strategy
Building a fire protection project risk response plan is a process of formulating a risk strategy (or plan) and a countermeasure. The purpose is to increase the chances of achieving the project goals and reduce the threats to the project. The commonly used risk response strategies and measures for building fire engineering include risk aversion, risk transfer, risk mitigation, risk retention, and risk utilization, as well as a combination of these strategies. The determination of risk management strategies and measures for building fire engineering needs to be considered in terms of both effectiveness and cost.
5.2 Ways to Avoid Risks
There are two ways to avoid risks: (1) Avoid the risk of risk events. For example, a building uses a special large space in the design of the project, and firefighting design requires the use of special technical measures. Although this firefighting technology program seems feasible, it has not been approved by the firefighting department. After expert consultation and experimental demonstration, it has found that its firefighting measures have considerable uncertainty in terms of investment and progress, that is, the risks are relatively high. Big. In the preliminary design, the owner decided not to adopt this fire protection plan and improve the architectural design of the building. This avoids the risk of risk events. (2) Avoid possible loss after a risk event occurs.例如，在æŸå»ºç‘å†…åŠ è®¾æ¶ˆç«æ “ã€çç«å™¨ã€åº”急ç¯ã€é˜²ç«é—¨çš„æ•°é‡ï¼Œå¢žè®¾é˜²æŽ’çƒŸç³»ç»Ÿï¼ŒåŠ å®½ç–散通é“ï¼Œæ ¹æ®å»ºç‘ä¸åŒçš„使用性质安装ä¸åŒçš„çç«ç³»ç»Ÿç‰ï¼Œè¿™äº›éƒ½ä¸èƒ½å‡å°‘ç«ç¾å‘生的å¯èƒ½æ€§ï¼Œä½†å¯ä»¥åœ¨ç«ç¾å‘生åŽå¯ä»¥æœ‰æ•ˆçš„å‡å°‘ç«ç¾é€ æˆçš„æŸå¤±ï¼Œå³è§„é¿é£Žé™©äº‹ä»¶é€ æˆçš„æŸå¤±ã€‚
5.2.1风险规é¿è®¡åˆ’系统
在建ç‘消防工程ä¸ï¼Œé£Žé™©è§„é¿è®¡åˆ’系统å¯ç”±é¢„防计划ã€ç¾éš¾è®¡åˆ’和应急计划三部分组æˆã€‚预防计划的宗旨在于有针对性地规é¿é£Žé™©ï¼Œå®ƒå¯é€šè¿‡ç»„织措施ã€ç®¡ç†æŽªæ–½ç‰æ¥å®žæ–½ã€‚ç¾éš¾è®¡åˆ’是一组事先编制好的ã€ç›®çš„明确的工作程åºå’Œå…·ä½“措施，以在出现å„ç§ä¸¥é‡çš„ã€æ¶æ€§çš„紧急事件å‘生åŽå¯ä»¥ä»Žå®¹ã€åŠæ—¶ã€å¦¥å–„地处ç†ï¼Œæœ€ç»ˆå‡å°‘人员伤亡和ç»æµŽæŸå¤±ã€‚应急计划是在风险æŸå¤±åŸºæœ¬ç¡®å®šåŽçš„处ç†è®¡åˆ’ï¼Œå…¶ç›®çš„æ˜¯ä½¿åŠ å¿«æ¢å¤ä¸æ–的过程，控制影å“程度在最å°çš„范围。
5.2.2风险规é¿çš„å±€é™æ€§
风险规é¿ä¹Ÿå˜åœ¨ä¸€å®šçš„å±€é™æ€§ï¼šï¼ˆ1）在æŸäº›æ¡ä»¶ä¸‹ï¼Œé£Žé™©è§„é¿ä¼šä¸§å¤±ä¸€äº›æœºä¼šæˆ–阻ç¢åˆ›æ–°ã€‚（2）风险规é¿å—ä¿¡æ¯çš„制约较大，当风险识别和风险估计还没有充分把æ¡æ—¶ï¼Œé£Žé™©è§„é¿çš„ç–略会å—到很大的影å“（3）采å–风险规é¿çš„ç–略有时ä¸å¤ªçŽ°å®žï¼Œå›žé¿é£Žé™©çš„åŒæ—¶ä¹Ÿå¤±åŽ»äº†ä¸€äº›ä»Žé£Žé™©ä¸èŽ·å¾—收益的å¯èƒ½æ€§ã€‚
5.3风险转移
风险转移是将æŸé£Žé™©çš„结果连åŒé£Žé™©åº”对的æƒåˆ©å’Œè´£ä»»è½¬ç§»ç»™ä»–方，是由å„方承担风险。例如，在消防工程项目决ç–风险应由业主承担ã€è®¾è®¡é£Žé™©åº”由设计方承担，施工安装技术风险应由承包商承担，而è¿è¡Œä½¿ç”¨çš„风险应由物业管ç†æ‰¿æ‹…。
风险转移åˆå¯åˆ†ä¸ºéžä¿é™©è½¬ç§»å’Œä¿é™©è½¬ç§»ã€‚
5.3.1éžä¿é™©è½¬ç§»
éžä¿é™©é£Žé™©è½¬ç§»æ˜¯é€šè¿‡åˆåŒæ¡ä»¶å’ŒåˆåŒè¯è¨€æ¥è¿›è¡Œé£Žé™©è½¬ç§»ã€‚例如，在满足设计强制性æ¡æ–‡å’Œè§„范ã€æ ‡å‡†çš„åŸºç¡€ä¸Šï¼Œé€šè¿‡åŠ å¼ºæŠ•å…¥è¿è¡Œä½¿ç”¨çš„消防管ç†æŽªæ–½ï¼Œå¯é€‚当å‡å°‘åˆæœŸçš„消防投入。
5.3.2ä¿é™©è½¬ç§»
ä¿é™©ä½œä¸ºé£Žé™©è½¬ç§»çš„一ç§æ–¹å¼ï¼Œæ˜¯åº”对建ç‘消防工程风险的一ç§é‡è¦ç–略和措施。建ç‘消防工程的投资较大ã€å»ºè®¾å·¥æœŸè¾ƒé•¿ã€æ½œä¼çš„é£Žé™©å› ç´ å¤šï¼Œä¸šä¸»å’Œæ‰¿åŒ…å•†ç»å¸¸é‡‡ç”¨ä¿é™©æ–¹æ³•ï¼Œæ”¯ä»˜å°‘é‡çš„ä¿é™©è´¹ç”¨ï¼Œä»¥æ¢å¾—å—到æŸå¤±æ—¶å¾—到补å¿çš„ä¿éšœã€‚
5.4风险自留
风险自留亦称风险接å—，时一ç§ç”±å·¥ç¨‹ä¸»ä½“自行承担风险åŽæžœçš„一ç§é£Žé™©åº”对ç–略。风险自留用于残余风险的处置，é¢å¯¹ä¼—多的风险，总会有一些难以把æ¡çš„风险åŠé€ æˆçš„æŸå¤±ï¼Œå·¥ç¨‹çš„主体自己承担或ä¿ç•™ã€‚
5.5风险利用
风险利用是建ç‘消防工程风险应对更高的一个层次，它主è¦é’ˆå¯¹ä¸€äº›æŠ•æœºæ€§è´¨çš„风险，通过对风险的把æ¡å’Œé©¾é©ï¼Œå¯ä»¥åŒ–ä¸åˆ©çš„åŽæžœä¸ºå‘展机é‡ã€‚例如，建ç‘æ¶ˆé˜²å·¥ç¨‹é¡¹ç›®çš„æŠ•æ ‡ï¼Œå…¶ä»·æ ¼å› ç´ ä¸€èˆ¬æ˜¯ä¸»è¦å› ç´ ï¼Œä½†è¿™ä¸æ˜¯å”¯ä¸€æ ‡å‡†ã€‚
5.6建ç‘消防工程风险管ç†å†³ç–
建ç‘消防工程风险管ç†å†³ç–，就是风险管ç†è€…在å 有一定的信æ¯åŸºç¡€ä¸Šï¼Œä»Žè‹¥å¹²å¯èƒ½å®žæ–½çš„方案ä¸ï¼Œé€šè¿‡åˆ†æžã€è¯„价和判æ–，选出满æ„的方案。
6.综åˆè¯„ä»·
建ç‘消防工程风险管ç†çš„æ¯ä¸€ä¸ªæ¥éª¤éƒ½æ˜¯å分é‡è¦çš„，å‰ä¸€ä¸ªæ¥éª¤æ˜¯åŽä¸€ä¸ªçš„å‰æå’ŒåŸºç¡€ï¼Œä½†æ ¹æ®ä¸åŒçš„具体情况其轻é‡ç¼“急也è¦å…·ä½“的分æžã€‚一般æ¥è¯´ï¼Œå¯¹äºŽå‘展比较æˆç†Ÿçš„建ç‘消防工程，例如上述的扬巴石化的案例，对风险应对方法的选择就比较é‡è¦ï¼›è€Œå¯¹äºŽå‘展ä¸å¤Ÿæˆç†Ÿçš„建ç‘消防工程åŠå…¶åˆ†æ”¯ç³»ç»Ÿï¼Œä¾‹å¦‚性能化设计，风险评估尤其é‡è¦ã€‚
6.1风险评估方法选择
风险估计方法主è¦å–决于建立的模型，模型的选择è¦æ ¹æ®æ‰€è¦ä¼°è®¡çš„建ç‘消防工程的特点，目å‰æˆ‘国还鲜有风险估计的模型，大都采用国外æƒå¨æœºæž„所制定的模型，而模型的选择方é¢æ›´æ˜¯ä¸€ç‰‡ç©ºç™½ã€‚
风险评价方法的选择è¦æ ¹æ®å·¥ç¨‹ä¸»ä½“自身的情况和风险的特点，进而选择ä¸åŒçš„é£Žé™©è¯„ä»·æ ‡å‡†è¿›è¡Œé£Žé™©è¯„ä»·ï¼Œå¦‚æžœå·¥ç¨‹ä¸»ä½“çš„èµ„é‡‘å’ŒæŠ€æœ¯å®žåŠ›æ¯”è¾ƒé›„åŽšï¼Œåˆ™å¯ä»¥é€‰æ‹©è¾ƒä¸ºä¸¥æ ¼çš„è¯„ä»·æ ‡å‡†ï¼›å之，则å¯ä»¥é€‰æ‹©è¾ƒä¸ºå®½æ¾çš„è¯„ä»·æ ‡å‡†ã€‚åœ¨è¿™æ–¹é¢ï¼Œæˆ‘国主è¦é‡‡ç”¨ä¸€äº›å›½å¤–çš„æˆåž‹çš„体系，尤其是一些比较æˆç†Ÿçš„行业å¯ä»¥æ ¹æ®è‡ªèº«çš„æƒ…å†µåŠ ä»¥å€Ÿé‰´ã€‚ä¸è¿‡é‚£äº›ä¸å¤Ÿæˆç†Ÿçš„行业则缺少借鉴的ä¾æ®ï¼Œéœ€è¦æœ‰å…³çš„专家，尤其是行业自身的建ç‘消防工程专家æ¥ç ”ç©¶å’Œåˆ¶å®šæ ‡å‡†ã€‚
6.2风险应对方å¼é€‰æ‹©
风险应对方å¼çš„选择是与风险评估紧密相连的，风险评估的结果直接决定了风险应对方å¼çš„选择。通常最基本的风险应对方å¼æ˜¯é£Žé™©è§„é¿ï¼Œå› 为风险规é¿ä»Žæºå¤´ä¸Šæ¶ˆé™¤é£Žé™©ï¼Œæœ€å½»åº•çš„消除风险影å“的方法。但对于ä¸åŒçš„情况也è¦å…·ä½“分æžï¼Œä¾‹å¦‚，风险å‘ç”Ÿæ¦‚çŽ‡å¤§çš„é£Žé™©ï¼Œå‡ ä¹Žåªæœ‰é‡‡å–风险规é¿ï¼›é£Žé™©æŸå¤±è¾ƒå¤§çš„风险è¦é‡‡å–风险规é¿åŒé£Žé™©è½¬ç§»ã€é£Žé™©ç¼“解相结åˆï¼Œå°¤å…¶æ˜¯ä¸€æ¬¡æŸå¤±è¾ƒå¤§çš„风险，ä¿é™©çš„风险转移的方å¼ä¹Ÿå分é‡è¦ï¼›è€Œå•ä¸ªäº‹ä»¶çš„风险å‘生概率较å°ï¼Œä½†å·¥ç¨‹æ¯”较å¤æ‚，潜ä¼çš„é£Žé™©å› ç´ è¾ƒå¤šçš„æƒ…å†µï¼Œé£Žé™©è½¬ç§»çš„æ–¹å¼å°±æ›´åŠ åˆç†ä¸€äº›ï¼›å¯¹äºŽæ®‹ç•™çš„风险，管ç†è€…åˆè¦é‡‡å–风险自留。
ç›®å‰æˆ‘国建ç‘消防工程å„个相关技术的å‘展都尚处在åˆçº§é˜¶æ®µï¼Œæ¶ˆé˜²å·¥ç¨‹å¦ã€é£Žé™©è¯„估体系ã€æ¶ˆé˜²ç»æµŽå¦ã€ä¿é™©ä¸šä»¥åŠç›¸å…³æ³•å¾‹æ³•è§„ç‰å¤šæ–¹é¢å› ç´ çš„ä¸å®Œå–„，都严é‡å½±å“了风险管ç†è€…对风险评估与风险应对关系的处ç†ï¼Œä½¿ç®¡ç†è€…在风险管ç†è¿‡ç¨‹ä¸æ— 法找到é‡ç‚¹ï¼Œæµªè´¹äº†å·¥ç¨‹ä¸»ä½“大é‡çš„èµ„é‡‘å’Œç²¾åŠ›ï¼Œé€ æˆäº†ä¸å¿…è¦çš„æŸå¤±ï¼Œæœ€ç»ˆåˆ¶çº¦äº†å»ºç‘消防工程风险管ç†çš„å‘展。
7.结æŸè¯
建ç‘消防工程风险管ç†æ˜¯æ¶ˆé˜²ä¸Šä¸€ä¸ªé‡è¦çš„部分，它在整个建ç‘消防工程ä¸èµ·ç€ä¸¾è¶³è½»é‡çš„作用。通过对建ç‘消防工程风险管ç†çš„ç ”ç©¶ï¼Œå¯ä»¥æœ‰æ•ˆçš„é¿å…或å‡å°‘建ç‘消防工程的æŸå¤±ï¼Œå¯¹æ¶ˆé˜²çš„性能化设计起ç€æœ‰åŠ›çš„促进作用，为综åˆæ¶ˆé˜²åˆ†æžç†è®ºæ供了技术支æŒã€‚本文对建ç‘消防工程管ç†çš„过程åªæ˜¯åšäº†åˆæ¥çš„é˜è¿°ï¼Œå›½å†…在这方é¢çš„ç ”ç©¶ä¹Ÿåˆšåˆšèµ·æ¥ï¼Œä½†æ˜¯éšç€å›½å†…消防的é€æ¸å®Œå–„，外国公å¸ä»¥åŠæŠ€æœ¯çš„介入，相信建ç‘消防工程风险管ç†å°†ä¼šåœ¨ä¸ä¹…çš„å°†æ¥èƒ½å¤Ÿå¾—到比较长足的å‘展。
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