Recently, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released the report "Gas 2017: Analysis and forecast to 2022" (GAS 2017: Analysis and forecast to 2022), which detailed analysis of global natural gas supply and trade development, infrastructure investment and as of 2022 The forecast of demand growth in the year assesses the main conditions that may transform the natural gas market. This article has compiled the main contents of the report for readers for reference. 
Low prices give gas a new opportunity (1) Natural gas will grow faster than oil and coal in the next five years. The report pointed out in the new five-year forecast that natural gas will grow at a rate of 1.6%, which is higher than the 2016 forecast of 1.5%. This means that natural gas consumption will increase from 363bcm (billion cubic meters) in 2016 to 400bcm in 2022. The internal growth momentum of this demand will mainly come from China. (2) Industry will be the main driver of demand for natural gas, accounting for half of the forecast. With the increasing use of natural gas in the chemical industry (for example, strong demand for fertilizers in countries such as India and Indonesia, and the replacement of coal by gas in a large number of small industrial applications in China), industrial natural gas demand is growing by nearly 3% annually. In addition, transportation gas will also grow rapidly. By 2022, it will increase from 120bcm in 2016 to 140bcm. In addition, demand from major power generation industries will continue to expand, but at a lower rate, it will increase by less than 1% per year. In many mature markets, renewable energy generation will increase rapidly, coupled with modest growth in electricity demand, limiting the demand growth capacity of the power generation market. In addition, many emerging markets that rely on imported natural gas, especially those that do not have strict carbon prices or air pollution regulations, still have strong competition from the coal industry. (3) Many countries are reforming the natural gas market to attract new investment. Many countries, including Mexico, China, and Egypt, are pushing for important natural gas market reforms, allowing more private participation in natural gas supply, transportation, and sales, and introducing third-party natural gas infrastructure. If implemented strictly, these reforms will result in more investment across the supply chain and a more sustainable demand and supply balance. In the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America and many parts of Asia, fuel subsidies, including natural gas, are drastically reduced. This will increase the competitive pressure between natural gas and other fuels, but it will lead to more efficient consumption of natural gas. And stimulate and motivate new investments. Natural gas is more stable in South Asia and East Asia (1) Natural gas is expanding rapidly in Asia, and China's natural gas demand is growing at 40% globally. After the economic slowdown in 2015-2016, China's natural gas demand is expected to increase by 8.7% in 2022, thanks to China's policy system to improve air quality. In addition, China’s “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†has provided strong policy support for natural gas, helping it to resist competition from the coal industry, replacing power generation, home heating and industrial sectors such as textiles, food and other types of manufacturing. The use of coal in China has greatly increased the use of natural gas in China. By 2022, consumption will reach 340bcm, of which 140bcm will be imported, which is twice the import volume of about 70bcm in 2016. (2) Indian natural gas demand will lead the rest of Asia. At present, natural gas accounts for about 5% of India's primary energy demand, leaving plenty of room for expanding natural gas growth. Strong economic growth has driven the growth in demand for natural gas power generation, which is driven by raw materials. It is estimated that in 2022, Indian natural gas demand will increase from 55bcm in 2016 to 80bcm. In addition, other countries in South Asia, especially Pakistan and Bangladesh, also showed strong growth momentum, which was mainly supported by cheaper LNG prices and increased electricity and industrial gas. (3) The demand for local natural gas is strong in resource-rich regions of the Middle East and Africa. Middle East natural gas consumption is increasing at an annual rate of 2.4% and will reach 540bcm by 2022. With regional economic growth and diversification, demand growth in the power sector is also relatively strong. Natural gas consumption in Africa has grown even faster, reaching 3.1% per year, for a total of 150bcm. Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria are the main countries driving high consumption. Latin America's annual demand growth is 1.3%, and consumption prospects in Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia will remain flat. The natural gas market in developed countries is saturated, but US consumer demand is still growing (1) The US will remain the world's largest natural gas consumer. The conversion of US power generation to CBM is a major driver of demand for natural gas. It is expected that the overall demand in North America will exceed 1000bcm in 2022, which is one-fourth of the global natural gas consumption. (2) European natural gas demand will remain stable. Due to the decline in natural gas prices and the withdrawal of coal-fired power plants, the demand for natural gas in Europe will increase, but it is expected to remain stable by 2022. Since the four consecutive years of decline in 2010, European demand has continued to rise for two consecutive years in 2016. Low natural gas prices, rising coal prices, the withdrawal of French coal-fired power plants and the shutdown of nuclear power plants have jointly boosted demand for natural gas power generation. In the UK, rising carbon prices have boosted natural gas demand in the power sector by 8bcm from 2015 to 2016. It is expected that due to factors such as limited growth in demand in the power industry, continued rise in renewable energy, and weak industrial output growth in Europe, the growth of natural gas demand in the power industry will be limited. (3) Natural gas consumption in Japan and South Korea is expected to decline. In 2016, Japan and South Korea consumed 45% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) transactions. Natural gas use has increased after the earthquake in Japan and the safety of nuclear power plants in Korea, but demand for natural gas in Japan and South Korea is expected to decline throughout the forecast period. However, due to the large degree of uncertainty in the nuclear power sector, the use of natural gas is also uncertain. The shale gas revolution has made the US global supply leading (1) US natural gas production will account for 40% of future global production growth. The United States is the world's largest producer of natural gas, and its output in the next five years will be much higher than in any country. In the forecast outlook, US natural gas production will increase by 2.9% annually to 140 bcm/year. By 2022, the United States will produce approximately 890 bcm of natural gas, accounting for 22% of global natural gas production. Although industrial demand growth has led to an increase in demand for natural gas in the United States, more than half of production will be converted to LNG exports. It is expected that the United States will continue to surpass Australia and Qatar and occupy a global leading position in LNG exporting countries. (2) Natural gas production in the Middle East has grown significantly, and Russian natural gas production has grown at a slower pace. As demand in the power and industrial sectors continues to grow, production in the Middle East will increase to 650 bcm in 2022. Half of it is expected to come from Iran. Russia is the second largest natural gas producer after the United States, with little use in the Yamal Peninsula, but its natural gas production can only grow at an average rate of 1.5%. With domestic market demand and stagnant European markets, Russia's growth opportunities will come mainly from LNG, which will deliver natural gas to China through new projects on the Yamal Peninsula. (3) China will become the world's fourth largest natural gas producer. According to forecasts, by 2022 China's natural gas production will increase by about 65bcm per year to 200bcm, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, making China the fourth largest natural gas producer. However, the geological problems in mining have also brought uncertainty in China's domestic production, and Chinese companies are stepping up their efforts to investigate and produce natural gas in difficult areas. Global LNG trade is growing (1) The volume and diversity of LNG trade flows are rapidly increasing. It is estimated that global liquefied natural gas will reach 160 bcm by 2020, and as this additional natural gas enters itself, it has already supplied sufficient markets, especially as the demand for some large traditional LNG importing countries (such as Japan) continues to decline. Will result in a relatively low price of LNG, prompting exporters to work hard to open up new markets. The number of LNG importing countries has increased from 15 in 2005 to 39 today. LNG growth has also benefited from more use of dual storage and regasification units, and has absorbed some of the remaining gas on the market. It is expected that by 2022, eight countries will continue to increase their natural gas import facilities. (2) Adequate supply of LNG is conducive to putting pressure on traditional natural gas pricing and marketing methods. Oversupply of oil and falling oil prices have reduced natural gas prices in oil-rich regions. As of 2013, the price difference between regions has also narrowed significantly. The highly competitive international supply environment has also eased some of the pricing and contract rigidity of the long-term natural gas trade. The expansion of US exports will also be further aggravated, which will also increase the liquidity and flexibility of the LNG trade. (3) Pipeline trade continues to grow, but competition is fierce in many markets. In recent years, the pipeline trade between the United States and Mexico has expanded rapidly. Despite the availability of LNG, the European supply chain still has a place in 2016. As Russia, Norway and Algeria ensure that their supply strategy for Europe is stable, there is little change in LNG imports in Europe. It is expected that two new natural gas trading routes will start operating in the next five years: through the TANAP and TAP pipelines to expand the links between major markets in Azerbaijan, Turkey and Europe, the Siberian pipeline between China and Russia will also become the main driving force for future global gas trade. . (4) The long-term risk of natural gas safety may come from insufficient investment in new natural gas supply infrastructure. The downward pressure on market prices of normal supply in the short term has hindered new investment in upstream LNG. In 2016, only two new final investment decisions (FIDs) were used to expand existing or new LNG facilities, but only one will be adopted by 2017. If the new gas supply investment continues to struggle, the natural gas market may have a hard landing risk by 2022.
Low prices give gas a new opportunity (1) Natural gas will grow faster than oil and coal in the next five years. The report pointed out in the new five-year forecast that natural gas will grow at a rate of 1.6%, which is higher than the 2016 forecast of 1.5%. This means that natural gas consumption will increase from 363bcm (billion cubic meters) in 2016 to 400bcm in 2022. The internal growth momentum of this demand will mainly come from China. (2) Industry will be the main driver of demand for natural gas, accounting for half of the forecast. With the increasing use of natural gas in the chemical industry (for example, strong demand for fertilizers in countries such as India and Indonesia, and the replacement of coal by gas in a large number of small industrial applications in China), industrial natural gas demand is growing by nearly 3% annually. In addition, transportation gas will also grow rapidly. By 2022, it will increase from 120bcm in 2016 to 140bcm. In addition, demand from major power generation industries will continue to expand, but at a lower rate, it will increase by less than 1% per year. In many mature markets, renewable energy generation will increase rapidly, coupled with modest growth in electricity demand, limiting the demand growth capacity of the power generation market. In addition, many emerging markets that rely on imported natural gas, especially those that do not have strict carbon prices or air pollution regulations, still have strong competition from the coal industry. (3) Many countries are reforming the natural gas market to attract new investment. Many countries, including Mexico, China, and Egypt, are pushing for important natural gas market reforms, allowing more private participation in natural gas supply, transportation, and sales, and introducing third-party natural gas infrastructure. If implemented strictly, these reforms will result in more investment across the supply chain and a more sustainable demand and supply balance. In the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America and many parts of Asia, fuel subsidies, including natural gas, are drastically reduced. This will increase the competitive pressure between natural gas and other fuels, but it will lead to more efficient consumption of natural gas. And stimulate and motivate new investments. Natural gas is more stable in South Asia and East Asia (1) Natural gas is expanding rapidly in Asia, and China's natural gas demand is growing at 40% globally. After the economic slowdown in 2015-2016, China's natural gas demand is expected to increase by 8.7% in 2022, thanks to China's policy system to improve air quality. In addition, China’s “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan†has provided strong policy support for natural gas, helping it to resist competition from the coal industry, replacing power generation, home heating and industrial sectors such as textiles, food and other types of manufacturing. The use of coal in China has greatly increased the use of natural gas in China. By 2022, consumption will reach 340bcm, of which 140bcm will be imported, which is twice the import volume of about 70bcm in 2016. (2) Indian natural gas demand will lead the rest of Asia. At present, natural gas accounts for about 5% of India's primary energy demand, leaving plenty of room for expanding natural gas growth. Strong economic growth has driven the growth in demand for natural gas power generation, which is driven by raw materials. It is estimated that in 2022, Indian natural gas demand will increase from 55bcm in 2016 to 80bcm. In addition, other countries in South Asia, especially Pakistan and Bangladesh, also showed strong growth momentum, which was mainly supported by cheaper LNG prices and increased electricity and industrial gas. (3) The demand for local natural gas is strong in resource-rich regions of the Middle East and Africa. Middle East natural gas consumption is increasing at an annual rate of 2.4% and will reach 540bcm by 2022. With regional economic growth and diversification, demand growth in the power sector is also relatively strong. Natural gas consumption in Africa has grown even faster, reaching 3.1% per year, for a total of 150bcm. Egypt, Algeria and Nigeria are the main countries driving high consumption. Latin America's annual demand growth is 1.3%, and consumption prospects in Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia will remain flat. The natural gas market in developed countries is saturated, but US consumer demand is still growing (1) The US will remain the world's largest natural gas consumer. The conversion of US power generation to CBM is a major driver of demand for natural gas. It is expected that the overall demand in North America will exceed 1000bcm in 2022, which is one-fourth of the global natural gas consumption. (2) European natural gas demand will remain stable. Due to the decline in natural gas prices and the withdrawal of coal-fired power plants, the demand for natural gas in Europe will increase, but it is expected to remain stable by 2022. Since the four consecutive years of decline in 2010, European demand has continued to rise for two consecutive years in 2016. Low natural gas prices, rising coal prices, the withdrawal of French coal-fired power plants and the shutdown of nuclear power plants have jointly boosted demand for natural gas power generation. In the UK, rising carbon prices have boosted natural gas demand in the power sector by 8bcm from 2015 to 2016. It is expected that due to factors such as limited growth in demand in the power industry, continued rise in renewable energy, and weak industrial output growth in Europe, the growth of natural gas demand in the power industry will be limited. (3) Natural gas consumption in Japan and South Korea is expected to decline. In 2016, Japan and South Korea consumed 45% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) transactions. Natural gas use has increased after the earthquake in Japan and the safety of nuclear power plants in Korea, but demand for natural gas in Japan and South Korea is expected to decline throughout the forecast period. However, due to the large degree of uncertainty in the nuclear power sector, the use of natural gas is also uncertain. The shale gas revolution has made the US global supply leading (1) US natural gas production will account for 40% of future global production growth. The United States is the world's largest producer of natural gas, and its output in the next five years will be much higher than in any country. In the forecast outlook, US natural gas production will increase by 2.9% annually to 140 bcm/year. By 2022, the United States will produce approximately 890 bcm of natural gas, accounting for 22% of global natural gas production. Although industrial demand growth has led to an increase in demand for natural gas in the United States, more than half of production will be converted to LNG exports. It is expected that the United States will continue to surpass Australia and Qatar and occupy a global leading position in LNG exporting countries. (2) Natural gas production in the Middle East has grown significantly, and Russian natural gas production has grown at a slower pace. As demand in the power and industrial sectors continues to grow, production in the Middle East will increase to 650 bcm in 2022. Half of it is expected to come from Iran. Russia is the second largest natural gas producer after the United States, with little use in the Yamal Peninsula, but its natural gas production can only grow at an average rate of 1.5%. With domestic market demand and stagnant European markets, Russia's growth opportunities will come mainly from LNG, which will deliver natural gas to China through new projects on the Yamal Peninsula. (3) China will become the world's fourth largest natural gas producer. According to forecasts, by 2022 China's natural gas production will increase by about 65bcm per year to 200bcm, an increase of 6.6% year-on-year, making China the fourth largest natural gas producer. However, the geological problems in mining have also brought uncertainty in China's domestic production, and Chinese companies are stepping up their efforts to investigate and produce natural gas in difficult areas. Global LNG trade is growing (1) The volume and diversity of LNG trade flows are rapidly increasing. It is estimated that global liquefied natural gas will reach 160 bcm by 2020, and as this additional natural gas enters itself, it has already supplied sufficient markets, especially as the demand for some large traditional LNG importing countries (such as Japan) continues to decline. Will result in a relatively low price of LNG, prompting exporters to work hard to open up new markets. The number of LNG importing countries has increased from 15 in 2005 to 39 today. LNG growth has also benefited from more use of dual storage and regasification units, and has absorbed some of the remaining gas on the market. It is expected that by 2022, eight countries will continue to increase their natural gas import facilities. (2) Adequate supply of LNG is conducive to putting pressure on traditional natural gas pricing and marketing methods. Oversupply of oil and falling oil prices have reduced natural gas prices in oil-rich regions. As of 2013, the price difference between regions has also narrowed significantly. The highly competitive international supply environment has also eased some of the pricing and contract rigidity of the long-term natural gas trade. The expansion of US exports will also be further aggravated, which will also increase the liquidity and flexibility of the LNG trade. (3) Pipeline trade continues to grow, but competition is fierce in many markets. In recent years, the pipeline trade between the United States and Mexico has expanded rapidly. Despite the availability of LNG, the European supply chain still has a place in 2016. As Russia, Norway and Algeria ensure that their supply strategy for Europe is stable, there is little change in LNG imports in Europe. It is expected that two new natural gas trading routes will start operating in the next five years: through the TANAP and TAP pipelines to expand the links between major markets in Azerbaijan, Turkey and Europe, the Siberian pipeline between China and Russia will also become the main driving force for future global gas trade. . (4) The long-term risk of natural gas safety may come from insufficient investment in new natural gas supply infrastructure. The downward pressure on market prices of normal supply in the short term has hindered new investment in upstream LNG. In 2016, only two new final investment decisions (FIDs) were used to expand existing or new LNG facilities, but only one will be adopted by 2017. If the new gas supply investment continues to struggle, the natural gas market may have a hard landing risk by 2022.Chlorinated Hydrocarbon,Volatile Anesthetic,Cas No 79016,Cas 79-01-6
Yibin Tianyuan Group , https://www.ybtyco.com