On September 7th, the EU decided to reduce the import tariff of Argentina's biodiesel from 22%-25.7% to 4.5%-8.1% from September 22, by reducing the import tariff of Argentina's biodiesel, causing large fluctuations in oil prices. Before the announcement of the voting results, the palm oil in the market rose to a high level in 26 weeks, driven by positive sentiment, which also led to the strengthening of other oils inside and outside the plate. However, after the results of the voting, the price of oil and fat has fallen sharply and then fell sharply. So, how does the EU reduce the import tariff of Argentina's biodiesel on the balance sheet of supply and demand of the EU and Argentina, and how does it affect the supply and demand balance of Argentina and even the global oilseeds? What is the impact of this incident on the trend of oil prices in the later period? The author will discuss these issues.
Argentine firewood production is greatly affected by exports
Argentina's biodiesel production is dominated by soybean oil. The output of soybean oil and raw wood is about 1:1. Argentina's biodiesel is marketed. The output depends mainly on domestic consumption and exports. This is also the consumption of Argentine soybean oil. Influencing factors. Since 2011, the domestic blending rate of raw wood has increased slightly, maintaining a total of 7-10%, which has led to a steady increase in domestic consumption. The export of Argentine biodiesel has been subject to changes in international crude oil prices and export regional policies. Larger volatility has led to large fluctuations in the production of firewood in Argentina and the consumption of Argentine soybean oil.
It can be seen that in 2013, the EU imposed high anti-dumping duties on Argentine firewood and plunged its exports. Argentina's biodiesel production fell sharply by nearly 500 million liters. Correspondingly, Argentina's soybean oil biodiesel consumption also fell by nearly 500,000 tons. The sharp drop in crude oil prices in 2015 led to a decline in demand for biodiesel, and Argentina’s biodiesel production and soybean oil’s biodiesel consumption also suffered heavy losses.
At present, the production of raw wood in Argentina remains stable.
More than half of the biodiesel produced in Argentina is exported, of which the EU and the United States are important export destinations. Before the EU imposed high import tariffs on Argentine firewood, Argentina’s biodiesel was mainly exported to the EU, and in 2012 it was against the EU. The export of raw wood reached 1.39 million tons, accounting for 90% of its total exports. However, the good times were not very good. In October 2013, the EU passed anti-dumping on Argentine biodiesel on the grounds that it exported biodiesel at a lower cost or market price. The tax decision, and in November of the same year began to impose a 22%-25.7% import tariff on it, plunging its exports to the EU. As of now, Argentina's biodiesel has almost no exports to the EU, but in the same year, the United States resumed a tax credit of $1 per gallon for blended biodiesel. Under the stimulus policy, the United States became the new Argentine firewood. Export destinations, Argentina's exports of firewood to the United States in 2016 reached nearly 1.5 million tons, accounting for more than 90% of total exports.
However, in less than four years, Argentina’s biodiesel export situation will turn sharply. In early 2017, in the face of the huge impact of Argentina’s blowout export growth on the domestic firewood industry, the United States filed an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy against Argentine biodiesel. survey. In the preliminary ruling announced by the US Department of Commerce on August 22, the countervailing duty rate was as high as 50.29-64.17%. If the tax rate was successfully implemented, Argentina’s firewood exports to the United States were basically blocked, but in the United States, it plans to At the time of the high “double-reverse†tariff on diesel, the EU’s vote to reduce the import tariff on Argentina’s biodiesel paved the way for the re-export of Argentine biodiesel to the EU, which also ignited new hopes for the firewood industry in Argentina.
A closer look at Chart 3 reveals that Argentina exported nearly 1.5 million tons of biodiesel to the United States in 2016, almost equivalent to the export before the EU imposed anti-dumping duties in 2012. Considering the growing demand for EU biodiesel over the years, the export potential is still It will be bigger. In the United States and the European Union's different policy changes to Argentina's biodiesel, Argentina's biodiesel exports to the United States may be blocked by high tariffs, but the EU's newly liberalized market is sufficient to accommodate Argentina's current production, and Argentina's biodiesel exports are expected to be produced. From the United States to the European Union, but in general, Argentina's raw oil supply and demand balance sheet has not changed much, the corresponding Argentina's soybean crush, exports and soybean oil exports, biodiesel consumption has not changed much.
The impact on US soybean exports has decreased
Although the production of firewood in Argentina is expected to remain stable under the influence of the dual events of the EU and the United States, the crushing, export and export of soybean oil and biodiesel consumption will not change much. However, the impact alone still exists. If the EU does not pass the vote, Argentina’s biodiesel exports will shrink sharply after “double-reverse†sanctions against the US, and Argentina will reduce about 1.5 million tons of soybean oil biodiesel consumption, which requires about 750. Ten thousand tons of soybeans were pressed. But Argentina's soybeans can't be millions of tons more. The extra beans are bound to be digested by increasing exports, or directly exported to soybeans or crushed into soybean oil for re-export, but in either case, there is no doubt that these increased exports will Impact on the global oilseeds market, for the United States with pricing power, under this impact, US soybean exports may decline significantly, adversely affecting their prices, which in turn affects global oilseed prices. However, the EU's tariff cuts on Argentina's biodiesel import will allow Argentina's biodiesel to be re-exported to the EU. The EU will consume these excess soybeans through biodiesel and reduce its impact, which will have a positive impact on global soybean and soybean oil prices.
Have a certain impact on palm oil consumption
In addition to the impact on soybean oil, the EU's downward adjustment of Argentina's biodiesel import tariffs will also affect the consumption of palm oil for biodiesel. In 2013, the EU imposed high import tariffs on Argentine biodiesel, and biodiesel imports fell sharply. In addition to the shortage of raw wood demand, biodiesel production in the EU region increased accordingly.
Similarly, the EU's import of Argentine biodiesel will impact the biodiesel production in the EU to a certain extent, and as a major feedstock for EU biodiesel, its biodiesel consumption will also appear. Sliding down. Currently, the EU's biodiesel raw materials are mainly vegetable oil, palm oil and discarded catering oil. Since the EU reduced production of Argentina's biodiesel imports in 2013, the proportion of biodiesel palm oil produced by the EU has increased significantly. In recent years, it has gradually stabilized to around 19%.
In 2012, the amount of biodiesel palm oil produced in the EU was 1.47 million tons. By 2013, due to the relatively low price of palm oil, the price of biodiesel was more competitive. This value quickly rose to 2.36 million tons, an increase of nearly 900,000. Tons, if Argentina's biodiesel can recapture the EU market, regardless of demand growth, palm oil biodiesel consumption will be reduced by about 900,000 tons according to the previous replacement. Although considering the actual factors, the EU's growth capacity in recent years cannot be completely replaced immediately, but it is conservatively estimated that the reduction of 4,500,000 tons of palm oil and wood consumption should be achievable. At a time when palm oil in Southeast Asia is at a high yield, export data will undoubtedly have a crucial impact on the trend of the later market. As a palm oil importing country, the reduction in demand for palm oil biodiesel in the EU may worsen the export of Southeast Asia to the EU. Export performance has a certain negative impact on palm oil prices. (Special contributor Tian Yaxiong Shi Lihong, article from Agricultural Products Futures Network exclusive original)
Argentine firewood production is greatly affected by exports
Argentina's biodiesel production is dominated by soybean oil. The output of soybean oil and raw wood is about 1:1. Argentina's biodiesel is marketed. The output depends mainly on domestic consumption and exports. This is also the consumption of Argentine soybean oil. Influencing factors. Since 2011, the domestic blending rate of raw wood has increased slightly, maintaining a total of 7-10%, which has led to a steady increase in domestic consumption. The export of Argentine biodiesel has been subject to changes in international crude oil prices and export regional policies. Larger volatility has led to large fluctuations in the production of firewood in Argentina and the consumption of Argentine soybean oil.
It can be seen that in 2013, the EU imposed high anti-dumping duties on Argentine firewood and plunged its exports. Argentina's biodiesel production fell sharply by nearly 500 million liters. Correspondingly, Argentina's soybean oil biodiesel consumption also fell by nearly 500,000 tons. The sharp drop in crude oil prices in 2015 led to a decline in demand for biodiesel, and Argentina’s biodiesel production and soybean oil’s biodiesel consumption also suffered heavy losses.
At present, the production of raw wood in Argentina remains stable.
More than half of the biodiesel produced in Argentina is exported, of which the EU and the United States are important export destinations. Before the EU imposed high import tariffs on Argentine firewood, Argentina’s biodiesel was mainly exported to the EU, and in 2012 it was against the EU. The export of raw wood reached 1.39 million tons, accounting for 90% of its total exports. However, the good times were not very good. In October 2013, the EU passed anti-dumping on Argentine biodiesel on the grounds that it exported biodiesel at a lower cost or market price. The tax decision, and in November of the same year began to impose a 22%-25.7% import tariff on it, plunging its exports to the EU. As of now, Argentina's biodiesel has almost no exports to the EU, but in the same year, the United States resumed a tax credit of $1 per gallon for blended biodiesel. Under the stimulus policy, the United States became the new Argentine firewood. Export destinations, Argentina's exports of firewood to the United States in 2016 reached nearly 1.5 million tons, accounting for more than 90% of total exports.
However, in less than four years, Argentina’s biodiesel export situation will turn sharply. In early 2017, in the face of the huge impact of Argentina’s blowout export growth on the domestic firewood industry, the United States filed an anti-dumping and anti-subsidy against Argentine biodiesel. survey. In the preliminary ruling announced by the US Department of Commerce on August 22, the countervailing duty rate was as high as 50.29-64.17%. If the tax rate was successfully implemented, Argentina’s firewood exports to the United States were basically blocked, but in the United States, it plans to At the time of the high “double-reverse†tariff on diesel, the EU’s vote to reduce the import tariff on Argentina’s biodiesel paved the way for the re-export of Argentine biodiesel to the EU, which also ignited new hopes for the firewood industry in Argentina.
A closer look at Chart 3 reveals that Argentina exported nearly 1.5 million tons of biodiesel to the United States in 2016, almost equivalent to the export before the EU imposed anti-dumping duties in 2012. Considering the growing demand for EU biodiesel over the years, the export potential is still It will be bigger. In the United States and the European Union's different policy changes to Argentina's biodiesel, Argentina's biodiesel exports to the United States may be blocked by high tariffs, but the EU's newly liberalized market is sufficient to accommodate Argentina's current production, and Argentina's biodiesel exports are expected to be produced. From the United States to the European Union, but in general, Argentina's raw oil supply and demand balance sheet has not changed much, the corresponding Argentina's soybean crush, exports and soybean oil exports, biodiesel consumption has not changed much.
The impact on US soybean exports has decreased
Although the production of firewood in Argentina is expected to remain stable under the influence of the dual events of the EU and the United States, the crushing, export and export of soybean oil and biodiesel consumption will not change much. However, the impact alone still exists. If the EU does not pass the vote, Argentina’s biodiesel exports will shrink sharply after “double-reverse†sanctions against the US, and Argentina will reduce about 1.5 million tons of soybean oil biodiesel consumption, which requires about 750. Ten thousand tons of soybeans were pressed. But Argentina's soybeans can't be millions of tons more. The extra beans are bound to be digested by increasing exports, or directly exported to soybeans or crushed into soybean oil for re-export, but in either case, there is no doubt that these increased exports will Impact on the global oilseeds market, for the United States with pricing power, under this impact, US soybean exports may decline significantly, adversely affecting their prices, which in turn affects global oilseed prices. However, the EU's tariff cuts on Argentina's biodiesel import will allow Argentina's biodiesel to be re-exported to the EU. The EU will consume these excess soybeans through biodiesel and reduce its impact, which will have a positive impact on global soybean and soybean oil prices.
Have a certain impact on palm oil consumption
In addition to the impact on soybean oil, the EU's downward adjustment of Argentina's biodiesel import tariffs will also affect the consumption of palm oil for biodiesel. In 2013, the EU imposed high import tariffs on Argentine biodiesel, and biodiesel imports fell sharply. In addition to the shortage of raw wood demand, biodiesel production in the EU region increased accordingly.
Similarly, the EU's import of Argentine biodiesel will impact the biodiesel production in the EU to a certain extent, and as a major feedstock for EU biodiesel, its biodiesel consumption will also appear. Sliding down. Currently, the EU's biodiesel raw materials are mainly vegetable oil, palm oil and discarded catering oil. Since the EU reduced production of Argentina's biodiesel imports in 2013, the proportion of biodiesel palm oil produced by the EU has increased significantly. In recent years, it has gradually stabilized to around 19%.
In 2012, the amount of biodiesel palm oil produced in the EU was 1.47 million tons. By 2013, due to the relatively low price of palm oil, the price of biodiesel was more competitive. This value quickly rose to 2.36 million tons, an increase of nearly 900,000. Tons, if Argentina's biodiesel can recapture the EU market, regardless of demand growth, palm oil biodiesel consumption will be reduced by about 900,000 tons according to the previous replacement. Although considering the actual factors, the EU's growth capacity in recent years cannot be completely replaced immediately, but it is conservatively estimated that the reduction of 4,500,000 tons of palm oil and wood consumption should be achievable. At a time when palm oil in Southeast Asia is at a high yield, export data will undoubtedly have a crucial impact on the trend of the later market. As a palm oil importing country, the reduction in demand for palm oil biodiesel in the EU may worsen the export of Southeast Asia to the EU. Export performance has a certain negative impact on palm oil prices. (Special contributor Tian Yaxiong Shi Lihong, article from Agricultural Products Futures Network exclusive original) Primary Emulsifiers And Secondary Emulsifiers
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