China Automobile Association: New energy vehicles are expected to continue to grow at a high rate next year

Abstract On December 6, the 2018APEC starting point new energy conference was held in Shenzhen. Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the negative growth of China's auto sales in 2018 is a foregone conclusion. It is expected that the overall sales growth of automobiles in 2019 will be zero. But new energy vehicles...

On December 6, the 2018 APEC Start New Energy Annual Conference was held in Shenzhen. Shi Jianhua, deputy secretary-general of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that the negative growth of China's auto sales in 2018 is a foregone conclusion. It is expected that the overall sales growth of automobiles in 2019 will be zero. However, new energy vehicles will continue to grow and will become the driving force for China's automobile growth in the next year. It is expected that at the end of this year, 1.18 million new energy vehicles will be sold, and by 2020, 2 million new energy vehicle sales targets will be completed.

In the field of complete vehicles, the decline in sales of traditional vehicles and the growth of sales of new energy vehicles have become a common consensus in the industry. Shi Jianhua pointed out that the overall market for Chinese autos began to experience negative growth. The overall output in January-October fell by 0.4%. This year's negative growth is a foregone conclusion. "Of course, negative growth here is also related to many objective factors." Shi Jianhua added that he believes that the growth rate in 2019 may remain at zero.

In sharp contrast to this, the sales of new energy vehicles continue to increase substantially. Shi Jianhua believes that although the overall automobile market is so, the performance of new energy vehicles is strong. With the support of all parties, new energy vehicles will grow at a high speed next year, and the Chinese auto market will mainly rely on new energy vehicles to achieve growth next year. The national development plan will be completed by 2020, and it is expected to achieve 2 million sales targets.

The industry generally believes that in addition to the passenger car field, logistics vehicles, sanitation vehicles and other similar special-purpose vehicles, rural agricultural vehicles, and micro-electric vehicles, there are large development areas, which can serve as the future of the industry. The focus of development areas of choice.

Cui Dongshu, secretary-general of the National Passenger Car Joint Conference, expects sales of new energy vehicles to reach 1.2 million this year and 1.6 million in 2019. In the whole new energy vehicle manufacturing field, there is a huge room for improvement in the core of the industry and the development of intelligence and electrification. Among them, the credit policy introduced by the state has played a huge role in driving new energy passenger vehicles. It is expected that the joint ventures will erupt in the new energy vehicle field in the next two years.

The same is the power battery field of the new energy automobile industry chain. In the past two years, with the influence of the state subsidies and other policies, there is a phenomenon of industry reshuffle. Some small companies that are technically uncompetitive have been washed out, and some large foreign power battery manufacturers have begun to target the Chinese market.

Feng Tielin, deputy manager of Baoding Changan Bus Manufacturing Co., Ltd. believes that the reshuffle of the power battery industry will bring unpredictable risks to the industry. The performance is in many aspects: First, the concentration of the domestic automotive power battery industry has risen sharply. According to its statistics, 2018 The market share of the top five power battery companies in the industry accounted for 77%, of which the top two companies have a market share of 63%. Secondly, the international brand of power battery accelerates the layout of China. At present, some international brands such as LG, Samsung, SKI and Panasonic are deployed in China, which has a great impact on China's own brand enterprises, and will also have a major impact on the competition pattern of power battery in the post-subsidy era. influences. Third, in the future, most domestic power battery companies will gradually lose their viability and enterprises will close down. Therefore, it is possible that the after-sales service of power batteries will be difficult to solve.

On the technical route of new energy vehicles, some experts have suggested that after a few years, the concept of “new energy vehicles” will be normalized and disappeared. In the future, it will be divided into energy-saving vehicles, pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, and intelligent network vehicles. . Chen Guangsen, vice chairman of Zhejiang Youyou Power System Co., Ltd., suggested that the current energy density of ternary batteries is obviously improved, which can effectively meet the endurance demand of electric vehicles, but there are problems of excessive cost and rising costs. The competition in the industry is particularly fierce, so there has been a price war. He called on the industry to work together to reduce the content of nickel and cobalt, thereby reducing the cost of batteries and jointly promoting the healthy development of the industry.

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