Chemical industry will be transformed from winter to spring

In the second half of 2014, the prices of international crude oil and naphtha dropped drastically, and the prices of chemical products with which they shared the same destiny were not spared. In 2014, the overall situation of China’s macroeconomic and petrochemical industries was poor, allowing more people to turn their attention to the downstream industries and hope to help the chemical industry to turn things around through supply and demand.

In 2015, the automobile manufacturing industry, home appliance industry, high-speed rail industry, e-commerce and agricultural modernization construction will have good news, or it will become the engine for pulling the demand for chemical materials. The traction chemical industry will change from winter to spring.

Automotive industry is the biggest engine

“Every car produced consumes an average of 150 kilograms of synthetic resin, 29 kilograms of non-tire synthetic rubber, and 20 kilograms of synthetic fiber. In 2015, where the pressure on China's chemical market is relatively high, the automotive industry may become the demand for pulling three synthetic materials. The largest engine of the company.” At the Sinopec Corp.'s 2015 refining and refining work conference, the relevant person in charge of the Sinopec Institute of Economics and Technology said.

The research report of the institute shows that in 2014, China's auto production and consumption amounted to 23.723 million and 23.496 million vehicles, respectively, an increase of 7.3% and 6.9% respectively. In 2015, the demand for automobiles in China is expected to reach 25.1 million units, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year, and the number of passengers for thousands of passenger cars will amount to 85 vehicles. Huge car demand will undoubtedly drive demand for synthetic materials.

In terms of synthetic resins, the automotive industry needs a large number of modified high-flow, high-impact polypropylene, medium-flow polypropylene, and also a certain amount of low-flow polypropylene; in terms of synthetic rubber, rubber for non-tyre vehicles includes three yuan. Ethylene propylene rubber, thermoplastic rubber, acrylic rubber, hydrogenated nitrile rubber and fluoroelastomer, the first two products have the fastest development speed and huge consumption; in terms of synthetic fiber, the automotive fiber is mainly polyester and nylon. Also includes acrylic, polypropylene, aramid and hemp products.

The report predicts that China’s auto industry is in the “pre-offset period”, with great potential for future development, and the demand for synthetic materials is increasing day by day. In 2020, China's plastic consumption for vehicles will exceed 4.4 million tons/year, non-tire vehicles will use 700,000 tons/year of rubber, and synthetic fiber for automobiles will be used in large quantities for the production of carbon fiber and aramid fiber to manufacture automobile vehicles. Body and structure parts.

A number of petrochemical and automotive professionals believe that chemical companies in transition should follow the automotive market, strengthen the connection with the production and sales of auto companies, optimize the logistics network, and produce high-performance automotive synthetic materials that are stable for different models.

Housing temperature cooling house

Affected by the regulatory policies and the slowdown in economic growth, the downturn in China's real estate industry has led to shrinking demand for synthetic resins in the construction industry.

Data show that real estate investment in 2010 grew at a rate of 33.2%, but it fell to 11.9% from January to November 2014. It is expected that the area of ​​new real estate construction will continue to decline in 2015. The cooling of the market has made certain industries such as PVC, polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, ABS resin, EVA resin, polyurethane foam, and glass fiber reinforced thermosetting resins as raw materials for construction products subject to certain impact.

However, some experts said that in the long run, the pulling power of the real estate industry for the synthetic resin market will rebound. By 2020, the proportion of plastics used in the construction sector will increase from the current 50% to 70%, especially the proportion of plastic doors and windows will exceed 90%. By then, the demand for synthetic resin products such as polyethylene and polystyrene will grow rapidly.

In addition, an interesting phenomenon is that the housing market is cooling down and the temperature inside the house is heating up. In 2014, the growth rate of China's home appliance industry was stable, and the demand for synthetic materials grew steadily.

According to statistics from the China Petrochemical Institute of Economics and Technology, during the period from January to November 2014, the output of air conditioners in China increased by 13.8% year-on-year, and the output of color TVs increased by 8% year-on-year. Refrigerator output was flat year-on-year. In 2015, the home appliance industry grew at a steady rate, and it is estimated that 4.4 million tons of synthetic resin will be consumed, up 5% year-on-year.

It is worth mentioning that most home appliance companies are pursuing quality upgrades, and strive to enhance the competitiveness of enterprises and products through product structure adjustments, technological innovations, and management upgrades. This means that synthetic resin manufacturers that are in the upper reaches of the industrial chain have gained both opportunities and opportunities. It must be transformed and upgraded to meet the challenges.

High-speed Rail + E-commerce + Agricultural Modernization = Pulling Demand

The rapid development of new industries has also given momentum to the chemical industry in 2015.

In recent years, the rapid development of China's merchandise retail and e-commerce industry has enabled the packaging industry to grow rapidly, effectively boosting the demand for synthetic resins. According to statistics from the China Petrochemical Institute of Economics and Technology, in the year of 2014, the parcel delivery volume of China's express delivery companies reached 13.96 billion, which was nearly double that of 2013, the highest since 2000. It is estimated that in 2015, the demand for synthetic resin in the packaging industry will reach 29.7 million tons. In the next step, the demand for e-commerce packaging and packaging materials upgrades and daily necessities for small package shipments will stimulate demand for synthetic resins to grow rapidly.

The rapid development of high-speed rail has also greatly boosted the demand for high-performance chemical materials. According to the planning of China's transportation sector, China’s railway investment in fixed assets amounted to 2.8 trillion yuan during the “12th Five-Year Plan” period. In 2015, the operating mileage of high-speed railways will reach 19,000 kilometers, and the industry needs mobile equipment construction and fixed facilities construction. A lot of chemical materials. In the future, the use of lightweight, low-toxicity, fire-retardant, impact-resistant, long-life, good elasticity and corrosion-resistant high-performance chemical materials will be the general direction for the development of the high-speed rail industry.

The modernization of agriculture is expected to stimulate the synthetic resin market. According to the 2015 Central Document No. 1, China will focus on "agriculture, countryside and farmers" for the 12th consecutive year to advance agricultural modernization and rural reform. The impact of the reform on the chemical industry is mainly reflected in the fields of agricultural films and plastic pipes, etc.: China's agricultural films mainly use low-density polyethylene, linear low-density polyethylene and ethylene-vinyl acetate materials, and the demand for synthetic resins will remain 5%. The speed of growth; China's water-saving irrigation strategic project construction will effectively pull the market demand for high-density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride manufacturing plastic pipe.