At present, China's photovoltaic industry is in the midst of a development from extensive development to refined development, from the scale of scale, the speed of fight, the price of fight to the quality, the technology, the benefit, and the transition from subsidy dependence to the realization of parity. Stepping into the new stage of development, how does the PV industry go well before the “last mile†without subsidies? Where is the new way out for photovoltaic power generation?
Recently, at the 2018 China Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference and Smart Energy (600869, Shares) Innovation Forum held in Hefei, Anhui Province, industry experts, PV big coffee, and PV enterprise representatives discussed the development direction and path of China's PV industry under the new situation.
Participants generally agreed that China's PV industry is in a critical period of transformation and development. PV companies should further increase R&D efforts, implement intelligent and refined management, improve production efficiency, improve development quality, reduce production costs, and accelerate the improvement of photovoltaic power generation. Competitiveness. At the same time, PV companies should change the traditional development model of providing only products and electricity, and actively explore new technologies and business models such as energy Internet and smart energy.
Subsidies retreat to force the industry to transform and upgrade
At present, in the context of the energy production and consumption revolution, combined with macro-policies such as supply-side structural reforms, the transformation and development of the photovoltaic industry is imperative. Wang Bohua, secretary general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that it is necessary to guide the photovoltaics to accelerate adjustments with new installation management and subsidy policies, and promote the industry to a high-quality development path.
Yu Qiaoqi, vice president of Jingke Power, said that due to the high dependence of PV companies on policies, the ups and downs of the industry are closely related to policies. After the “May 31st†New Deal, the sharp drop in the price of upstream components accelerated the parity of the Internet. From the auction results of the third batch of runners, the price of the fourth batch of runners tends to be cheaper. In her view, the photovoltaic industry must The "last mile" before going online at a fair price depends on three points: subsidies, non-technical costs, and scale.
Affected by new policy adjustments, the photovoltaic power generation structure is becoming more and more reasonable. According to the latest statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the new installed capacity was 34.5GW in the first nine months of this year, down 19.7% year-on-year. Among them, centralized 17.4GW, down 37.2% year-on-year; distributed 17.14GW, up 12% year-on-year.
At the same time, the cost of photovoltaic power generation continued to decline, and the total investment cost fell by 23.5%. Among them, the technical cost decreased by 28.2%, and the non-technical cost did not decrease by 42.9%. The decline in technology costs was mainly attributable to the decline in the cost of components and inverters, which led to an accelerated decline in system costs, rather than a decline in technology costs and an increase in the proportion due to the policy-driven, “leaders†program and the continuous improvement of the market order.
Cao Renxian, chairman of Sunshine Power (300274, shares) Co., Ltd. said that the photovoltaic industry's unsubsidized trend is approaching, companies need to seize the opportunity, seek new ideas, and shift the focus of photovoltaic development from expanding to improving quality and efficiency. "In the future, clean energy represented by solar energy will surely play a leading role in the new world energy landscape. China's photovoltaic distance from the Internet is only a shortcoming. From competition, low-level competition to quality upgrade and smart energy development, we can not only let PV companies continue to maintain their leadership position in the new round of adjustments, and they can also bring the era of affordable Internet access as soon as possible."
Of course, policy adjustment is inevitable, but the photovoltaic industry still needs the support of relevant policies. Tao Ye, deputy director of the Renewable Energy Development Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the PV price should be viewed rationally, the subsidy problem will not be dissipated naturally, and the scale of new construction will not be “openâ€. However, the power value of photovoltaic power generation in the power market is still unable to achieve the same level as traditional power technology, and after achieving the stage goal of parity, macro policy support is still needed.
Qiu Zhanqi, chairman of Zhejiang Zhengtai New Energy Development Co., Ltd. said: "In the next 2-3 years, the photovoltaic industry should be an era of non-subsidized projects and subsidized projects. The subsidized projects should be kept at a certain scale, and the subsidies can be reduced; Subsidy projects need to be developed on a large scale. Enterprises need the government to create a favorable policy environment for unsubsidized projects, and give preferential policies on connection conditions and financing."
Technological innovation and upgrading is the driving force
In the face of the transformation and upgrading of the industry, how does the PV industry respond? The high-quality development of the industry is inseparable from technological innovation and management innovation. “In order to achieve high-quality development in the industry, it is necessary to change and upgrade and upgrade.†Wang Bohua said that the domestic PV industry needs to change from pursuing scale and speed to quality and efficiency, and manufacturing should be digital, networked and intelligent. Integration should be driven by innovation and development in the direction of application diversification; power stations should explore models such as wall sales.
Zhong Baoshen, chairman of Longji (601012, shares), said: "Photovoltaic is an emerging industry, technology is developing very fast, how can we keep up with the development trend of leading technology, Longji summed up as "not leading without expanding production", if temporarily in the market When the supply shortage occurs, and the technology and technology cannot reach the leading level, it will be difficult to recover the investment once the market encounters the storm."
"The company's own management and cultivation are the key to survival. The core lies in a correct understanding of the market, policies and their own perceptions." In Cao Renxian's view, "current PV companies' perceptions of policies and markets still exist. If it is missing, enterprises should not have a "gambling" mentality, but rely on their own struggles, allocate resources to carry out innovation, and pay more attention to asset refinement and technology research and development."
Zhang Guangchun, COO of Attes Sunshine Power Group, said: "For enterprises, it is useless to adhere to the development of technology, but the development of technology requires investment and time. The industry should have patience, including PERC, back passivation, etc. Technology, it takes a long time to industrialize." Song Dengyuan, chief technology officer of Yingli Green Energy Holdings Co., Ltd. also said that the key to efficient industrial battery technology to become industrialized technology lies in equipment, materials and processes. Breakthrough in three aspects of complexity and silicon type, how to make up the short board and growth items is a problem that the entire PV industry needs to think about.
Smart PV is the highlight
Participants said that the high-quality development of the photovoltaic industry, in addition to technological innovation, should promote the development of smart photovoltaics, deep integration with the Internet of Things, big data technology, artificial intelligence, 5G communications and other technologies to promote the high-quality development of China's photovoltaic industry and move to the global High-end in the value chain.
“The development of smart energy is in the ascendant, but it also faces challenges in technology, market and cost.†Zhao Wei, senior vice president of Sunshine Power, said that at present, Sunshine Power has joined forces with relevant departments in Hefei to form a smart energy innovation platform. Focusing on the research and application of key technologies for smart energy, focusing on smart energy equipment, production, transmission, storage, consumption and other fields, through technological innovation, business incubation, and industrial agglomeration, forming a cluster of smart energy system industry and building "Internet +" smart energy The new form of energy.
Gao Jifan, chairman of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and chairman and CEO of Trina Solar, said that in the future, in addition to continuing to reduce costs and increase efficiency, the photovoltaic industry should shape photovoltaics into user-recognized energy. "Photovoltaic industry and big data, Internet of Things and other technologies combine to create products that are closer to the user's life, and establish a user-experienced industrial form of "energy-based and energy-exceiving"." It is reported that Trina Solar is building an energy Internet of Things. system. In 2017, the Hefei New Station Energy Internet Project, built by Trina Solar, was successfully selected as one of the country's first energy Internet demonstration projects. Trina Solar can build the intelligent micro-network project of Changzhou Tianhe Factory, the Tianhe Sun City Project of Changzhou High-tech Zone, the Green Smart Energy Project of Yancheng Economic and Technological Development Zone, the Comprehensive Energy Project of Chongqing Nanchuan District, and the Small Town of Yinbao Wetland Wait.
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