Policy continues to focus on stability in the real estate market

Policies continue to be issued in the context of “tweening tide-type” enterprises or being cleared by the market in the context of “adjusting the structure and stabilizing prices”, and the country’s eight articles, restrictions on purchase restrictions, and various taxation policies have been introduced in succession. In addition to a series of policies for homebuyers, the central government has also read "spells" against developers. It was stipulated that a room had a price, a 10% security room was required to be built, and an emphasis was placed on paying 50% of the first payment within one month after the land auction. Hangzhou also reiterated its “no deposit” and so on, which made developers feel that The pressure of tight funding.

According to the sales prices of 70 large and medium-sized cities in December 2011 released by the National Bureau of Statistics, compared with the same period of 2010, there are 9 cities in 70 large and medium-sized cities, which has increased by 5 compared with November. There are 55 cities where the increase has fallen. One of the provinces Wenzhou City fell 2%, the largest decline. The above data intuitively reflects the power of the policy.

In this regard, most people in the industry believe that the regulation will continue this year. Sun Pingshu, Marketing Director of Landsea Real Estate Zhejiang, stated that the latest round of Premier Wen Jiabao's remarks on January 31 will tell the central government's determination to regulate the property market. Stability will be the primary goal of 2012. Liu Hongjun, managing director of Mingdao Management Consulting Co., Ltd., likens the price of the centrally controlled ups and downs to the driving vehicle. “What I need to do this year is 'vehicle speed cruise', so that the price that has entered the down channel is locked within a certain range. Balanced."

He believes that continuous regulation will make 80% of developers forced to "clear." “The developers are divided into three categories. The first category is benign developers, such as Greentown and Binjiang, and the products themselves are constantly upgrading; the second category is 'trivial giants', similar to Vanke and China Shipping, with a large market share, but The policy adjustment will quickly adjust the price to meet the just-needed demand; the third category is the 'tidal-type' developer, who is only responsible for building houses on the land. Such developers account for about 80%, and are easily adjusted during the market adjustment period. Clear out the real estate industry."

"Double limit" will continue to be most likely to be the most likely to loosen on December 22, 2011, Zhang Xiaohong, deputy director of the Department of Housing and Real Estate Market Supervision Department emphasized at the above meeting, this year's restrictions on purchase, differential credit and tax policies must be adhered to. “The current regulation of the property market has reached the standard but it has not yet reached the end of this rule. Once it is abandoned, it will be abandoned.” In 2011, 48 cities gradually joined the restricted purchasing team. However, as of December 26, 2011, of the 48 cities that had implemented the “restriction order,” only 10 cities including Shanghai and Beijing made it clear that they will continue to implement the purchase restriction policy in 2012, and the rest will wait and see. .

The reporter asked the relevant person in charge of the Housing Authority of Hangzhou City for confirmation. The reply was that there was no relevant discussion on whether the purchase restriction order was cancelled and the central requirement was basically maintained.

In addition to restriction or will continue to implement, will the credit limit policy continue? The Central Economic Work Conference is still strict with regard to the policy of the property market next year, so both policies will not be relaxed.

In the short term, under the control of controlling prices into the down channel, we can call it an effective policy. However, in the medium and long term, the pressure on homeowners to limit loans is also increasing, especially for rigid home buyers. Achievements can be purchased, and now according to the different requirements of banks, down payment should be at least 30% or even 40%, and ** interest rates also go up. The total investment of 1 million yuan in the previous price has increased from 200,000 yuan to 400,000 yuan.

“It just needs to be the most bubble-free and investment-oriented part of the population. This part of the demand is actually the central government’s more supportive demand for home purchases. Therefore, this year, if we make a targeted relaxation from the policy point of view, it must be based on just starting.” Sun Pingshu analyzed.

In the first half of the month, Hangzhou is unlikely to levy real estate tax. Although industry experts still dispute whether real estate tax can reduce housing prices, in many scholars' view, real estate tax will become the most effective "disposer" in the real estate market. In many people's minds, it seems that as soon as the property tax is introduced, house prices will fall.

At the end of 2011, Zhejiang Province took the lead in completing the housing information networking system. Five cities including Hangzhou, Wenzhou, Ningbo, Shaoxing, and Jinhua will basically realize real estate information networking. During the Spring Festival of the Dragon, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that The network of housing information systems in 40 cities across the country will be completed by June of this year. The industry believes that these signals are the previous preparations for the real estate tax to be introduced.

Analyst Yang Hongxu, Director of the Comprehensive Research Department of the Shanghai Institute of Integrated Research Institute of Real Estate, analyzed that the possible inclusion of pilots can basically lock first- and second-tier cities (municipalities, provincial capitals, and cities with separate cities) for two reasons: First, first-tier cities and second-tier cities High, is a key area of ​​real estate regulation, the introduction of real estate tax will increase the taxes held by the owners, help to curb investment speculative demand, so as to meet the current policy of regulating house prices. Second, first- and second-tier cities have basic tax conditions such as high degree of informatization and electronic management. The government can accurately control the status of family-owned housing.

Zhao Hangsheng, director of the Institute of Real Estate Research at Zhejiang University, believes that the specifics of how the property tax is levied and who is recruiting for it all require a comprehensive plan. It is not only possible to determine whether or not to include the scope of the urban housing price. He said that at least half a year before the introduction of real estate tax in Shanghai, the program has undergone a period of adjustment. “Needs to go through comments, discussions, and announcements. So from the current perspective, it is unlikely that Hangzhou will introduce property taxes at least in the first half of the year. ”

Commercial real estate "residentialization" has been restricted or will end on January 18. The Hangzhou Municipal Government issued the "Implementation Opinions on Further Regulating the Planning, Design, and Management of Non-residential Projects such as Commercial Offices" (hereinafter referred to as "opinions"). It is forbidden that commercial office buildings will be sold under the names of residential buildings, homes, gardens, gardens, etc., which contain residential properties, and that the phenomenon of including residential functions is also suspended in publicity. The "Opinions" will be formally implemented 30 days after the announcement date.

Must not be designed in the form of a unit or a dwelling house, and must not be equipped with a separate bathroom, a hollow balcony and a bay window. All non-active notification of the nature of the product is a violation of the rules, and must not be divided and transferred (sales), or a permit. The above-mentioned order can be said to be the first post policy given by the Hangzhou Municipal Government during the year of the Dragon.

Because the hotel-style apartment has both rental return and daily living functions, plus the influence of non-restricted purchase, it is very popular with the market. In 2011, a total of 10,562 sets of commercial real estate projects were completed in Hangzhou's main urban area, which is basically the same as the 10,568 sets in 2010. Among them, both shops and office buildings lost to 2010, relying on the sudden emergence of hotel-style apartments. Just because of the drilling of the policy's loopholes to sell hot, so many developers deliberately weaken the nature of the business, playing with the curtains of the home "to wipe the ball." The "Opinions" issued this time can be said to have plugged this loophole and allowed commercial projects to return to the nature of business.

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