April jet fuel ex-factory prices may rise again

Following the ex-factory price increase of 229 yuan/ton in March, the ex-factory price of China's jet coal may once again rise. According to the forecast of Treasure Island, an e-commerce platform for bulk commodities, the increase was even greater at 335 yuan/ton. Under the new fuel surcharges and fuel price linkage mechanism, or overwhelmed by jet fuel ex-factory price increase will lead to airline fuel surcharges again sync up 10 yuan.

Influenced by geopolitical and Chinese oil demand will slow and other factors, international crude oil prices in recent days ** showing long and short see-saw, high consolidation situation, FOB Singapore jet fuel has also come high and volatile. According to Treasure Island's calculations, during the period from February 25 to March 24, the average offshore price of jet fuel in Singapore rose by US$5.57/barrel compared with the previous month, and the converted duty value after landing was 8,104 yuan/ton, which was 335 yuan higher than the previous month. /Ton.

In accordance with the principle of not exceeding the Singapore market's import CIF, if the amount of discounted water in the previous month remains unchanged, Treasure Island expects that the ex-factory price of aviation fuel for CAO in April will be around 8,054 yuan/ton, which is higher than that in February. 335 yuan/ton.

Meanwhile, the fuel surcharge and jet fuel linkage mechanism improve after last November, the domestic aviation kerosene comprehensive procurement costs has risen by more than "250 yuan per ton." Treasure Island therefore expects that the domestic airline fuel surcharge in March will increase by 10 yuan. At present, the domestic airlines have a fuel surcharge of 140 yuan for domestic routes over 800 kilometers and a domestic fuel surcharge of 70 yuan for 800 kilometers or less.

The rising price of jet fuel has also caused a steep increase in airline cost pressures. At present, the cost of jet fuel for Air China (601111), Eastern Airlines (600115), and Southern Airlines (600029) has exceeded 40% of the total cost. According to statistics from the Civil Aviation Administration, the total profit of airlines in 2011 has decreased from 2010. Industry insiders said this was mainly due to fuel prices in 2011 rose by about 32.7%, while the airline's fuel costs are the largest costs.

Kong Dong, former general manager of China National Aviation Group Corporation and former chairman of Air China, recently said in an interview with a China Securities Journal reporter that from the data of January and February, China's aviation industry has slowed down; this year's domestic airlines are expected to slow down. The total profit and profit growth rate may be reduced; the domestic market will play an important supporting role in the growth of China's domestic aviation companies' profit this year, and there will be great room for development in the future. The international market will face the dual pressures of growth and price.

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