Ferroalloy import analysis at the end of the year

Ferrosilicon: China's ferrosilicon prices stopped declining. The user intends to purchase the ferrosilicon in October-December 2006 in advance. The mainstream price for China's export of ferrosilicon to Japan is 750-760 USD/ton (CIF Japan). Exporters are optimistic about the sales market and strongly resist bids below $750/tonne (CIF). With the increase in China's crude steel production, the price trend of ferrosilicon has moved away from the traditional trajectory. The reduction in overseas supply of ferrosilicon has brought about a certain impact on the Japanese market.
Silicomanganese: China's silicomanganese price eventually rebounded and rose to 700 US$/ton (CIF Japan) after 1 year and 4 months. However, the low price of $680/tonne (CIF) has not been eliminated. The rise of China's steel market is the basis for supporting silico-manganese prices, and China's silicon manganese exports are showing a growing trend. In the first seven months of 2006, China exported 261,000 tons of silicomanganese, a year-on-year increase of 15%. As silico-manganese prices have risen to US$700/tonne (CIF), the export volume of this product has increased.
Furnace Ferrochrome: The price of ferrochromium lags behind the rising stainless steel market. South African production companies are very concerned about the pricing of ferrochromium for shipments in the fourth quarter of 2006. Considering the exchange rate of the Rand against the U.S. dollar (1 US dollar = 7.1 rand), the price increase factor gradually disappeared, and the price reduction factor went up quietly. From October, South African production companies will increase ferrochromium production. Xstrata plans to operate the Lion project in the second half of 2006 (chromium output 350,000 tons/year). Many factors indicate that the supply of ferrochromium will increase. This shows that, for South African production companies, the fourth quarter of ferro-chrome prices can be flat with the previous quarter is fortunate.
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Manganese metal: Considering the purchase of electrolytic manganese metal from Pohang company from the fourth quarter, the price would have risen. It is expected that Posco will regularly purchase 5000-7000 tons of electrolytic manganese metal. China's electrolytic manganese price has risen to 1270-1300 US dollars / ton (CIF Japan). China has stepped up its efforts in environmental governance, which has limited the capacity of newly added electrolytic manganese metal. However, China's existing metal manganese production capacity has reached 1 million tons/year, so the governance measures have very limited impact on the electrolytic manganese market.
Metal silicon: China's metal silicon prices have gradually increased. China's bid for 5.5.3 metal silicon has risen to nearly 1,100 US dollars / ton (CIF Japan). Silicon metal is a hard-to-gain product unless domestic demand increases. China's silicon metal industry, which mainly relies on overseas markets, will face a severe test.
Molybdenum: The impact of a rock landslide accident at the Chuquicamata mine in Chile's Codelco company will have eliminated molybdenum production by early September. Since Codelco has decided to reduce production of molybdenum in 2006, the accident has had a huge impact on the market, with the price of molybdenum oxide increasing more than that of ferromolybdenum. At the beginning of the accident in early August, the price of molybdenum oxide was 25-26 USD/lb, while the current price has risen to 27.5 USD/lb (CIF Japan). At present, Chinese ferromolybdenum is offered at US$63/kg (CIF Japan), which is US$3/kg higher than at the beginning of August.
Ferrovanadium: The trader's offer for vanadium is $37/kg (CIF Japan). In the past month, the price of ferro-vanadium has only increased by 0.5-1 USD/kg, with little volatility. In the first seven months of this year, China exported 2,429 tons of ferro-vanadium, a year-on-year increase of 15%.