Shanghai zinc has formed a double top callback from mid-November to around 17,000 yuan/t at the end of November, with a drop of more than 4,000 yuan/t. The current price has been supported in the short term. It is expected that the Shanghai zinc price may enter a period of wide oscillation at the end of this year.
First of all, the uncertainty of the USD rally. Since the beginning of November, the U.S. dollar index has rebounded from 75.63 to around 81, but it has recently recovered. The Fed's ** Bernanke said that because the unemployment rate remains high, it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to increase the purchase of treasury bonds, that is, more than the second quantitative easing. The US$600 billion, the immediate response in the financial market was that the US dollar weakened and commodity and stock prices rebounded again. But whether the so-called three quantitative easing can really start, the market also has big differences, but once the market's expectations are fulfilled, it will bring greater uncertainty to the commodity prices.
Second, the uncertainty of China's macroeconomic policies. This weekend, the annual central economic conference is held. This meeting will set specific economic goals for China in 2011. The annual CPI, the broad money supply M2, the new growth plan, and the GDP growth rate will become financial factors. Market focus. On December 14, the NDRC will also hold a meeting to determine the economic growth and price control targets in 2011. The CPI data for November will also be released this weekend, and the market’s expectation is that it will hit another year's high, and this may trigger the central bank to raise interest rates again. For this reason, financial markets have been cautious around many important meetings and nodes. Both the stock market and the market outlook have seen a decrease in overall transactions and volatility.
Again, the zinc supply and demand relationship changes. Recently, the 12th Five-Year Plan for China's Non-Ferrous Metals has been issued. The general idea for the development of the non-ferrous metals industry is to meet the needs of the domestic market, strictly control the blind expansion of smelting capacity, and resolutely eliminate post-weak capacity. It is planned that by 2015, the output of ten metals will be controlled within 41 million tons, and the output of the top ten non-ferrous metals is expected to exceed 31 million tons in 2010. Based on the current growth rate of around 6%, the annual production will be completed by 2015. Will exceed 41 million tons, so according to the "12th Five-Year Plan", the future of China's non-ferrous metal production may be strictly limited, the annual output growth will decline. In the plan, zinc production will also be controlled within 5 million tons. From January to October 2010, China's refined zinc output has exceeded the level of the previous year, reaching 4.3 million tons, and is expected to reach more than 5.1 million tons by the end of the year. The forthcoming implementation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will eliminate some of China's zinc production, and zinc output will decline. However, while deciding the decline in output, it is more difficult to predict the consumption, because it is affected by the macroeconomic side. According to the latest report of the International Lead-Zinc Organization, the global refined zinc market will continue to maintain the oversupply situation in 2011, but the surplus has dropped from 230,000 t in 2010 to 160,000 t.
On the technical side, LME zinc is slightly stronger than Shanghai zinc. After getting support in the 2000-2100 area, it has started a weekly level rebound. The major resistance area in the future is in the range of 2530-2580 USD. The Shanghai Zinc Continuous Index gained strong support near 17,000 yuan. This area is also a traffic-intensive area from August to the end of September. The upper resistance is the double neck line of 19,500 yuan. According to the current total amount of Shanghai zinc positions and the transaction level, Do not have the energy to break this zone. At the same time, the relative stagflation and defensive performance of domestic stocks in recent days has also limited the room for further price increases and declines. Even if the Shanghai-Zinc intraday volatility is more severe, it is also difficult to have continuous performance overnight due to external disk influence.
In summary, due to the current supply of zinc may be reduced and other factors, the support near the domestic 17,000 yuan is stronger, the overall reduction in space is small, the operation can be mainly dip buy, but on the way back, you should also pay attention to the short-term market expectations For factors such as raising interest rates, when the price is close to the top of 19,000 to 19,500 yuan, it should be the main outcome of the rallies, and generally maintain a wide-range oscillation of the operating ideas, waiting for the coming year.
First of all, the uncertainty of the USD rally. Since the beginning of November, the U.S. dollar index has rebounded from 75.63 to around 81, but it has recently recovered. The Fed's ** Bernanke said that because the unemployment rate remains high, it does not rule out the possibility of continuing to increase the purchase of treasury bonds, that is, more than the second quantitative easing. The US$600 billion, the immediate response in the financial market was that the US dollar weakened and commodity and stock prices rebounded again. But whether the so-called three quantitative easing can really start, the market also has big differences, but once the market's expectations are fulfilled, it will bring greater uncertainty to the commodity prices.
Second, the uncertainty of China's macroeconomic policies. This weekend, the annual central economic conference is held. This meeting will set specific economic goals for China in 2011. The annual CPI, the broad money supply M2, the new growth plan, and the GDP growth rate will become financial factors. Market focus. On December 14, the NDRC will also hold a meeting to determine the economic growth and price control targets in 2011. The CPI data for November will also be released this weekend, and the market’s expectation is that it will hit another year's high, and this may trigger the central bank to raise interest rates again. For this reason, financial markets have been cautious around many important meetings and nodes. Both the stock market and the market outlook have seen a decrease in overall transactions and volatility.
Again, the zinc supply and demand relationship changes. Recently, the 12th Five-Year Plan for China's Non-Ferrous Metals has been issued. The general idea for the development of the non-ferrous metals industry is to meet the needs of the domestic market, strictly control the blind expansion of smelting capacity, and resolutely eliminate post-weak capacity. It is planned that by 2015, the output of ten metals will be controlled within 41 million tons, and the output of the top ten non-ferrous metals is expected to exceed 31 million tons in 2010. Based on the current growth rate of around 6%, the annual production will be completed by 2015. Will exceed 41 million tons, so according to the "12th Five-Year Plan", the future of China's non-ferrous metal production may be strictly limited, the annual output growth will decline. In the plan, zinc production will also be controlled within 5 million tons. From January to October 2010, China's refined zinc output has exceeded the level of the previous year, reaching 4.3 million tons, and is expected to reach more than 5.1 million tons by the end of the year. The forthcoming implementation of the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will eliminate some of China's zinc production, and zinc output will decline. However, while deciding the decline in output, it is more difficult to predict the consumption, because it is affected by the macroeconomic side. According to the latest report of the International Lead-Zinc Organization, the global refined zinc market will continue to maintain the oversupply situation in 2011, but the surplus has dropped from 230,000 t in 2010 to 160,000 t.
On the technical side, LME zinc is slightly stronger than Shanghai zinc. After getting support in the 2000-2100 area, it has started a weekly level rebound. The major resistance area in the future is in the range of 2530-2580 USD. The Shanghai Zinc Continuous Index gained strong support near 17,000 yuan. This area is also a traffic-intensive area from August to the end of September. The upper resistance is the double neck line of 19,500 yuan. According to the current total amount of Shanghai zinc positions and the transaction level, Do not have the energy to break this zone. At the same time, the relative stagflation and defensive performance of domestic stocks in recent days has also limited the room for further price increases and declines. Even if the Shanghai-Zinc intraday volatility is more severe, it is also difficult to have continuous performance overnight due to external disk influence.
In summary, due to the current supply of zinc may be reduced and other factors, the support near the domestic 17,000 yuan is stronger, the overall reduction in space is small, the operation can be mainly dip buy, but on the way back, you should also pay attention to the short-term market expectations For factors such as raising interest rates, when the price is close to the top of 19,000 to 19,500 yuan, it should be the main outcome of the rallies, and generally maintain a wide-range oscillation of the operating ideas, waiting for the coming year.