Since the continuous slump in the organic raw material market in mid-November, after a month of weakness, the price of some products has risen slightly. From a technical point of view, some product prices have gone out of the bottom area.
There are several reasons why the domestic organic raw material market can come to the bottom at this moment: First, organic materials have been undergoing consolidation for a long time, and the volume of transactions has continued to shrink. The bottom features have been revealed, and there is a demand for rebound to reach the bottom; the second is acetonitrile and other products. The price increase is largely related to the market's expectation of changes in macroeconomic control. The central bank did not adopt a method of raising interest rates under high inflation, but continued to increase the deposit reserve ratio, so that market participants clearly felt that the regulation of organic raw materials The impact of the market gradually decreased; Third, the recent high crude oil prices and ethylene prices, manufacturers increased costs, price reduction will not be strong, especially the end of the Central Economic Work Conference to a certain extent, also increased market confidence.
Although prices of some organic raw materials have recently come out of the bottom, the current macro-control efforts are still relatively large. In particular, if the negative interest rate reaches 2.6%, even if some organic raw materials can rise, their efforts will not be too great. For the last half of this year, The market's expectations cannot be too high. As far as the current market structure is concerned, prices may rebound sharply when polyvinyl alcohol and vinyl acetate products enter the off-season sales season, the inventory of manufacturers is relatively high, and capital withdrawal is more urgent.